TIDE NEEDS A WIN OVER THE REBELS... 

When the season started, I wrote a blog saying that Alabama would win some games they should probably lose, and lose some games they should win. That is precisely what is happening to the Tide. The question is why and the answer is evident in some ways. It's not so clear in others.

1 The Tide lost a First Team JUCO All-American who would have helped the Tide. Rojas would have started at the small forward spot. Petty would have been a full time shooting guard. I think Petty has done a great job this season. He plays three positions in most games. He is a shooting guard, the small forward, and is the best post player Alabama has on offense. None of which is conducive to concentrating on his shooting which is what the Tide needs most from him. He is our best rebounder.

2. Alabama's two post players are not dominating the inside. They can only be as good as their talent level allows, and you can't fault them for that. They play hard. Each has shown improvement but falls short of what the Tide needs. I would love to see both of them on the floor in some situations.

3. Kira Lewis plays far too many minutes. That leads to turnovers. He is Bama's best player. He needs some help in the form of rest. Beetle Bailey plays hard, but he is not a point guard. He can motor. I thought his last game was his best game of the year.

4. The bizarre decision by the NCAA to deny Q the chance to play this season was unfair and unfounded. The young man had been through the trauma of false allegations and mental stress. The NCAA, which denied him the chance to play allows two SEC coaches which questionable ethics to continue to coach. That duality is hard to swallow. Q is a great player. The former  5-Star recruit would have given the Tide a dynamic backcourt.

5. The Tide is unfocused at times. Okay, a lot of times. That one is on the coaching staff. Alabama makes the same mistakes regularly. Some of the errors come from fatigue. Others are just sloppy execution.

   I'm sure other reasons come to the reader's minds. So that brings us to a much bigger question. Can the Oats offense be a consistent winner in the SEC? Our rebounding is not up to par. It falls somewhere between below average and horrible. A talented big man would help, but can a big man play the uptempo game required by Oats? Stamina is always a question regarding big men. Would two quality big men be an answer? It's hard enough to sign one big man much less two.

   I wonder if Coach Oates underestimated the SEC. The five out system may work in a league without quality inside players. Or perhaps the injuries have been too much for any team to bear. My best guess is that the missing players will cost the Tide an NCAA bid. I have questions about the system, but that may be unfair to judge at this time. There is an adage we all might do well to remember - a shooter's gotta shoot. The Tide is likely to lose games every season when the shooting goes cold. Shooters are always going to shoot because most think the next shot goes in.  The inconsistency of the three-point shooting is going to be an ongoing problem for any team. When your offensive strategy consists of lay-ups and downtown shots which eliminates mid-range shooting, it is going to cost you some games, in my opinion. Oats believes the analytics favor his system. He might be right (I think he could be correct), but I think a team with so few players isn't a fair measure of his belief. I think Tide fans need to calm down and give the man some unfettered support. Perhaps we haven't seen the true effectiveness of his system.

Alabama takes on Ole Miss on the road tonight. Most Vegas betting houses have Alabama as a 2.5 point dog. Bama needs a win to keep postseason hopes alive.

Crash and burn?

     It isn't easy being an Alabama basketball fan. For those who witnessed the Newton and Sanderson years, basketball since those times has been frustrating at best. Alabama was ranked #1for week under Mark Gottfried and then fell off the face of the earth. Unfortunately, the trials and tribulations have far outweighed the highs that come with success. Today, the Crimson Tide takes on a Georgia team whose record is 12-10.  The Bulldogs are 10-2 at home. Alabama isn't exactly road warriors are they? 

      Injuries had plagued the Tide before the season began. Then Q was denied eligibility this year. Then team leader Herbert Jones broke his wrist. None of those are conducive to having a winning record this season. But today, it isn't the physical injuries that concern me. It is the mental state of a basketball team that has lost three consecutive games in the SEC.  Two of those games were at home. So can Alabama set aside recent history and get back on the winning track? I'm not sure the Tide can win at Georgia, but I hope that's wrong.

     Alabama has some problems they could fix. Using your head is at the top of the list. Poor decisions with the ball have plagued the team all season long, but the 20 turnovers against Tennessee is depressing. It seemed as if the Tide had turned the corner regarding turnovers. The last game set a new standard for sloppy play and careless passing. Georgia isn't a great team, and Alabama could win this game. I hope the players have a better mental attitude than the fanbase. Patience isn't a virtue for Alabama fans. Before the season began, I said it would take three years for Oats to get his program rolling. I'll stick by that.

Two teams are trying to make the postseason.

     Tuesday night, the 12-9 Tennessee Vols, the SEC Cinderalla of last season, comes to Coleman Coliseum to play the 12-9 Crimson Tide. One of these teams is going to see their hopes for the NCAA, and perhaps the NIT goes up in flames. Despite the loss of Herb Jones, I'm picking the Tide to win a close game. Here's what I'll say about the Vols. They may be the worst defensive team in the SEC.  The game may not be a masterpiece, but I think Bama has the edge due to playing at home. 

      Alabama has a chance to light it up on offense and beat Tennessee. Alabama leads the SEC in scoring with 82.2 ppg. Tennessee 12th with 66.5 ppg. That is a significant difference. The Vols do not have any player in the top 20 in scoring. The Tide has two in the top 10.  The Volunteers don't have a rebounder in the top 15. 'Bama, despite their rebounding troubles, have one player in the top ten.

     After a stellar season, the Vols haven't been able to show the SEC they a good team.  Tennessee has lost four of its last seven home games. If you know SEC, that is phenomenal. Rebounding has been an issue for the Tide. Consider this - Tennessee has been out boarded 82-45 in the last two games. Rick Barnes turned down UCLA to return to Thompson-Bowling. His 4.7 million dollar salary hasn't made Tennessee fans very happy. In all fairness to Barnes, the Vols return zero starters from last season.

      Alabama has installed a new offense, and they lead the league in scoring, and surprisingly, Alabama is 2nd in the SEC in rebounding. Here's a stat that turnover happy Alabama needs to keep in mind. Tennessee leads the SEC in assists. Alabama has made 82 more threes than the Vols. All the numbers point to a Tide victory, but the loss of Herb Jones is hard to quantify. We are also unsure if Bolden will be able to return. Bolden can give Lewis and Shackleford some rest. One overlooked number is that Forbes had nine rebounds in limited minutes. Look for him to increase his minutes. Alabama is not a good defensive team, but they are better than Tennessee. I picked Bama by two, but I do think the Tide could put up some big numbers if they are shooting well.

Always nice to beat Vandy on the road...

       A road win is always a good thing. The Tide has always had a tough time in Nashville. The final score was 77-62. The only reason it wasn't 30 points or more is that Alabama had 25 turnovers. Let's repeat that - 25. How bad is this poor Vanderbilt team? They had 25 extra possessions and still lost by 15 at home. Of course, the 'Dores had quite a few turnovers themselves.  

       Alabama isn't going to win another game with 25 turnovers and we all know that. A win is a win and Tide goes to an unexpected 4-2  in the SEC. Next up, Kansas State, fresh off a technical knockout against Kansas comes to Coleman. KSU will be minus two players who got suspended for the fight against the Jayhawks. Neither start or contribute much to KState but has a good showing in the post-fight. KState. The Wildcats are 8-10. Their most impressive win was over West Virginia which was ranked #14 in the nation. Big 12 basketball is always tough from top to bottom. Bama will be a clear favorite in the game, but don't expect a cakewalk. The Big12/SEC challenge is a bragging rights. deal. Last season the SEC was 4-6 against that league.

      While no official word has been released get on Davis, it was reported he was walking without assistance and was listed as  "questionable" for the KState game. That means that Galin Smith will be the only true big man on the floor for the Tide. I suppose that Raymond Hawkins could play if necessary. He's played one game this season and Tide coaches look like they want to redshirt him. He can play four games and retain his redshirt status.  Alex Reese is really a stretch four but he could play the post if needed. I thought that Petty and Jones played an excellent game. Lewis had a bunch of assists but also had a lot of turnovers. Bolden has some problems that Oats needs to address. A road win was nice. Now it's time to clean up the sloppy play. Rebounding was a big plus for Alabama. 

next four out ...

    That doesn't mean Alabama is in the field of 64. It means that the metrics and the eyes of those who matter are noticing Alabama. I'm not sure many people thought that Nat Oats could have gotten Alabama this far in season one. I didn't. The more you watched the blue-collar effort of the player's things looked better. The bombs aways attitude of the offense is a joy to behold. The Tide now stands at 10-7, while not steller you have to remember the injury situation before the season and after the season started. I'm impressed with what I've seen. 

    Nat Oats takes this team to the worst place that 'Bama plays. Of course, Nat Oats doesn't believe that and his team no longer believes that. IF Bama beats Vanderbilt (Bama is an 8 point favorite) and then beats Kansas State the Tide would be 12-7 and before the big road game with cheatin' Will Wade and his professional LSU Tigers.

     I like the Tide to win tonight. Jerry Stackhouse has elevated Vandy out of the embarrassment zone, but I'm not sure the Vandy defense can stop Alabama. I think Bama is at least in the best five teams in the SEC today. If you look at all things considered I wouldn't argue with 6th. The SEC is not as good as it was last season. Auburn has stumbled.  Kentucky doesn't look as good as usual. Florida is not performing as expected. If These trends continue I see no reason for the Tide not to get a bye for the SEC Tournament and even more.

Bama by ten tonight. 

What is LSU thinking...


      Will Wade is the head coach at LSU. The question is how is that even possible? How does the NCAA, the SEC, and LSU allow to continue? When the three bodies that should and could put an end that do nothing it's a bad day for integrity. To most of us, basketball is a sport. To the NCAA, SEC, and LSU is a business. It'sO about the money. In the college sports world is always about money. In a telephone call which was recorded by an FBI wiretap, Wade admitted to making an offer to a recruit. “It was a [expletive] hell of a [expletive] offer,” Wade said. “Hell of an offer.” 

     The first thing that Wade did was lawyer up. Whatever transpired between Wade's attorney and the three amigos is unknown. My best guess is that Wade said he'd sue LSU if they fired him. The Wade phone call is not going away. My best guess is that the NCAA and the SEC will eventually rid themselves of the Wade. In talking with several LSU fans they defend the coach. They believe the phone call never says the Coach offered the recruit any money or anything inappropriate. One said he might be working with the FBI. It is odd how fans make excuses and can justify anything. Of course, we now live in a society where inappropriate behavior is acceptable. The real problem (other than Wade) is that LSU won't fire the coach. LSU is a school where English common law is not the legal basis to follow. The Napoleanic Code is used. LSU won't fire the coach because of money. Morality is not even a consideration. 

     If LSU wins the SEC Basketball Championship they did so with a cheating coach, a complicit AD, and school President who turns a blind eye.  There is no honor in that. I believe eventually that all the wins under Wade will be vacated, championships rescinded, and the Administration will try to publically distance themselves from the situation. 

TIDE BEATS MISSOURI 88-74...

    You have to be impressed with what Nat Oats is building in Alabama. The ex-Buffalo coach came to the Deep South to revive basketball. Oats believed he could bring his idea of what a basketball team could do using a unique offensive system. Oats thought he could come to the pre-eminent football program in the NCAA and could make basketball relevant again. It isn't like Alabama basketball hasn't been relevant in the past. At a school where football is king, it is easy to forget how good basketball had been at the University of Alabama. There are two schools of thought about being the basketball coach at Alabama. First, the Alabama brand can give a coach all the tools he needs to build a successful program. One of those tools is money. The other school of thought is that a basketball coach will languish in obscurity because of the football program. I think Tide hoop fans have seen both. To younger fans, Wimp Sanderson is the example of hoops excellence.  For those of us who are older, Johnny Dee, C.M. Newton, and Mark Gottfried were all successful. 

    When Oats was hired I wrote that Tide fans should exercise some caution and lots of patience to determine exactly how successful he could be. Obviously, the man can coach. Making it to the NCAAT seemed impossible. If Alabama continues to play like they have in the last 10 games or so there grows the probability of getting a bid. He's done so with his offense. Being old school I am pleasantly surprised with the defense. Alabama's offense will wear a team down, but their defense will kill you. I'm sure that part of Oats's success is due to the SEC having never seen an offensive attack the Tide uses. I am curious to see how teams play the Tide the next time they play.

    Alabama was just better than Missouri on Saturday. Missouri made 31 consecutive free throws which are an SEC record. It was stunning to watch the Tigers drain them. If you told me a team made 31 free throws I'd assume they won in a blowout. Alabama still beat them. Lost in the 31/31 was the fact that Alabama made 25 of 30. The game set a new standard for clown-like officiating. I'll say this - both teams found some benefit from the officials. Both teams have some legitimate complaints. Usually, the home team gets the calls. That wasn't the case for Alabama.

    The Tide's outside shooting was the difference. Missouri got back in the game in the second half when Alabama's three-point shots didn't fall. Alabama was handicapped by Kira Lewis's foul trouble. Next week, the Tide travels to Vandy and then homes back to Coleman for a game with Kansas State.