TIDE TAKES ON MISSISSIPPI STATE ON SATURDAY...   

UPDATE: Ga'Quincey McKinstry might dress today for the Tide

Nate Oats says that the five-star football recruit has been practicing with the hoop team. Whether he plays or not is another question

Jones' leadership has been a key.

   Alabama has rocketed to a # 2 seed, according to many bracketologists. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has moved the Tide up a # 3 seed in the Region 2 Bracket. Baylor is the # 1 seed per Lunardi. None of his predictions are cast in stone. No doubt, the Crimson Tide is headed in the right prediction for better seeding in the NCAA Tournament. This weekend Nat Oat's team hosts the Mississippi State Bulldogs. This game has always been a big game between the two schools.  Alabama is going to be a prohibited favorite for the 5:OO PM tip-off.

         The two teams are going in opposite directions. The Tide is 7-0 in the SEC, and Bulldogs are a respectable 4-3.  I think the Tide wins, but Mississippi State is a big, strong, and lengthy team on defense. Big men will always give Alabama some trouble.  It will be the speed and quickness of Alabama vs. the size and power of Mississippi. State is no pushover. Ben Howland is a great coach. He coached UCLA to consecutive Final Fours. His Bruins lost to Florida in the semi-finals twice. It was an almost impossible job for anyone to be the head coach at UCLA following John Wooden. Howland is arguably the second-best coach to sit on the sidelines in Pauley Pavilion. If State losses it won't be Howland's fault. 

       Mississippi State will present a lot of problems for the Tide. They are solid both inside and outside. They have long wing spans, and they have hops. Adbul Ado is 6-11 and weighs 255 lbs.  Alabama will have a tough time defending him.  Ado is averaging 7 rebounds a game and has blocked 2 shots per game.  He anchors the Bulldog defense in the paint. He averages 5.7 ppg.  He'll have trouble running the floor against Bama.  Fatigue will become a factor for him.  The other half of the skyscraper interior is 6-11 Tolu Smith. He is averaging 8.8 boards an outing, and 13.5 ppg. He is long, strong, and very athletic.  The pair is going to cause some real problems inside.  State is one team that has the size to hurt the Tide's offensive rebounds. Smith will also have trouble keeping up with Bama's quickness and speed.  

       On offense, the Bulldogs have two All-SEC type players. Iverson Molinar, who is a guard, is averaging 17.4 ppg. He is 6-3 and will probably end up guarding  Josh Primo.  D.J.  Steward, Jr. who is a 6-6 two guard is also averaging 17.4 ppg, and is State's best player in my opinion. He has the length to give John Petty some trouble on the catch and shoot. Finally, point guard, Devion Smith, 6-1. 165 lbs rounds out the projected State starting lineup. Smith is quick and fast. Howland will depend on him to try to cut down Quinerly and Shackleford's penetration. 

        I think Bama will win this home game, but let me point out that the interior size of Adu and T. Smith's size will cause the Tide some problems.  The Bulldogs also have two prolific outside players, each of whom can penetrate the paint.  Oats wants to continue the hard-hat attitude on defense. State was embarrassed by rival Ole Miss in their last game. I'm betting the HailState crew will come in ready play a good game. 

        Bama wins by a dozen or more. 

 Alabama's ascension in the polls shouldn't be overlooked...   

Two of 'Bama's Assasins

    If Alabama beats Mississippi State this weekend, it will be hard to keep Alabama from being a top-ten team in the polls. Let's assume that 'Bama bests the Bulldogs this weekend.  A  win will give the Tide a record of 13-3. That means that Alabama would have won 81.25% of their games. This all happened after a pedestrian 4-3 start. Eight wins in a row. That's remarkable. That's remarkable for any NCAA team in an era of parity. The NCAA designed limited scholarships (13) to bring a kind of equality in basketball. Has it worked? When you see non-traditional national powers like Gonzaga, Baylor, Wisconsin, Texas, and Villanova in the top-ten, you'd have to say yes. I know these teams have enjoyed some success in the past. These schools not traditionally powerhouses. This year we have seen Duke, Kentucky, and North Carolina struggle. That might mean the limited scholarship rules have had some success. And then there is Alabama. When Alabama gets five-star and four-star players, it makes me believe that it has helped Alabama. This might give all of us some idea about how Nat Oats can sign five-star players. Of course, you still have to sign them. I suspect that the style of play helps him in this regard.

      What Oats has done in two seasons is unusual. It is not unprecedented but improbable. Someone told me Alabama was playing "streetball." That is not true.  The five-out offense is a highly sophisticated method of allocating shot selection.  Go back to yesterday's post, and you can see where 'Bama shoots the ball. That is not "streetball."  It takes a highly disciplined group of players to execute this offense. To make this work, the Tide needs five players who can make outside shots. Big men are not traditionally good outside shooters. Alabama's big men are. That means a defense has to step outside to guard anyone who can make a three-pointer.  Alex Reese can. Jordan Bruner can. Rojas can make the three. Even Juwan Gary can make them. That came as a surprise to many, but  Oats will not recruit anyone who believes cannot shot or learn to shoot the three (Herb Jones is an example).   

     You want to understand why Jones and Quinerly make so many lay-ups?  It's because the lane is clear by four other defenders who have to drift outside the paint to cut down on outside shooting. What happens if defenders fail to do that? Ask John Petty,  Josh Primo, and Jahvon Quinerly. If the point guards continually shoot lay-ups, the other defenders have to help out. It's a choose your poison. How do you defend this? You really can't. You have to hope the Tide misses the three-ball. Ask LSU what happens when they don't miss. Another benefit of shooting the three-ball is the long rebound. Guess where those go? To the other offenses players who are around the three-point line. Defenders will always collapse inside to help whoever got beat off the dribble in the paint.  John Petty's deluge of threes against LSU is the classic example of the five-out offense. What was ironic was Wade's continuing decision to guard the dribble and let Primo and Petty keep shooting. When Wade finally decided to guard the perimeter,  it was Quinerly who lit it up.  The man defending the 'Bama point will always protect the lane. Take an additional step off of Quinerly, and he'll kill you from the outside. 

     You have to remember that Oats wants a shot put up in 10 seconds or less. That puts tremendous stress on the defense. Defenders have to stop the fast break (which means they end up in the lane), and the Tide shooters come down the floor to look for a space to catch and shoot. When the Tide shoots well, they beat you. 

    So, you have to beat Alabama with your offense.  Good luck with that. When the Tide hard hats you to death with their length and quickness, it is not easy to get a good shot.  Invariably, the offenses will try to slow down and take better shots.  Here's what you have to remember. You don't have to beat opposing offenses every time they have the ball. You have to win some of those battles. It means that the opposing offense must get offensive rebounds. This is the one fundamental weakness I see with Alabama's game plan. If an opposing team makes a lot of second-chance baskets, you might beat the Tide. You also have made your free-throws and cut down on turnovers. 

     If Nat Oats reads this, he might say that the analytics tell him that percentage of winning with his method far outweighs the danger of losing by giving up second-chance baskets.  I think he's correct. Given the Tide's current talent level, they are winning. If the talent level gets even better, the chances of this system increase statistically toward winning.

     Oats has brought something fascinating and special to the Capstone.  I hope the AD will reward him for his contribution. Imagine this,  the Coliseum is packed with 15,000 fans, and Petty drains seven consecutive triples. There would be an explosion that would blow the roof off the world's largest Quanset Hut. I hope I'm there to see that in person.

    Let's make sure fans don't overlook this run.  The national media will come around acknowledging the Tide's basketball prowess.  A few more wins, and we'll be a much-love bracketbaby. Roll Tide.

   

Her

 Alabama destroys LSU 105-75... 

Update: Tide # 10 in CBS Poll

   

Oats had them ready

     Alabama and LSU went into last night's game to find out who was the SEC's best team. The Tide was a shaky one-point favorite. That's Vegas's way of saying they have no idea who should win, but Alabama knew.  This was a astonishing  victory for Alabama. How bad was it for LSU?  They were down 60-32 at the half. The margin grew to forty in the second half. With 7:15 left in the game, Nat Oats cleared the bench,  but when Darius Miles dropped his second three-pointer, the Crimson Tide set a school and SEC record for threes. And seriously, it could have been worse. The top eight Tide players sat out the last seven minutes in the game. 

         John Petty opened up the game with five consecutive three-pointers. It was a blow to the mind of LSU players,, which they never recovered. It was an extraordinary display of a shooters touch. Those shots didn't rattle around. They were, as the late Joe Dean loved saying, "string music".  It wasn't just Petty, however. Freshman Joshua Primo made 6-8 three-point shots. Not to be outdone,  Jahvon Quinerly nailed 6-7 from behind the line. The guards made 20-25 three-points attempts.      

Petty's shooting stunned LSU

      LSU was stunned by this shooting. At the ten minute it was becoming clear that the Tigers were going to lose. I'm not any of us could understand how one-sided this win would become. The Tide made an mind-boggling 14-19 threes in the first half. For the  game, the Tide would shoot 56% from the floor.  When you include that Alabama shot 43 three balls overall, it is almost unbelievable. LSU simply did not have enough firepower to make a meaningful run at Alabama once they fell behind. 

      Alabama  also out boarded the Tigers 43-40.  Jaden Shackleford led Alabama with 8 assists out of a total of 20.  LSU managed only 10. Both teams had four blocks each.  The Tigers had only 12 turnovers and Bama 16. In all fairness, 7 of those turnovers came with substitutes on the floor in last seven minutes. Tip of the hat to Nate Oats for pulling the starters.  I think the Tide would have scored 120 points otherwise. The Tide made its point.  They destroyed LSU on their home floor. 

      In the post game interview, Nat Oats praised the senior leadership, acknowledged that Petty is  the best shooter in the NCAA, and his  pride in Alabama's defense. Petty said it was "just another day in the gym."

IMO:

1. Herb Jones did yeoman's work on Watford. 

2. Petty kept Thomas from scoring often when it mattered most.

3. Shackleford killed the Tigers with his penetration and dishing out for threes

4. Rojas, a bull in the China Shop, led Bama rebounding with limited time on the floor.

5. Alex Reese was elbowed in the throat three times with no calls. Reese is playing his best ball.  His shooting will come around.

6. Quinerly is a magician with the ball. His drive and out passing is outstanding. 

7. Bama is clearly the best team in the SEC right now. I think Missouri second. Tennessee has some problems. LSU better man up or they are done.

 THE NEW NUMBERS: It was an outstanding night for Alabama fans. I expect Bama to be a projected #2 seed in Lunadari's next bracketology. I predict that will replace Tennessee as a #2 seed.

1. The latest KenPom # is 10. 

2. The Tide's SOS is now #14. 

3. Bama's ELO is now #6.  

4. The RPI is #9. 

5. The NET score is up 7 places to #11

Take a look: The Alabama shooting chart from last night shows the Oats philosophy on where to shoot from.

We didn't shoot many twos. Just a few lay ups and offensive rebounds. Two nice offensive tip ins. 

   

    All and all a night to remember and certainly one we should never forget. Roll Tide Roll

 TIDE CAN WIN THE LSU GAME...

   

 I've watched quite a few games in the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. A lot of them were before Pistol Pete's name was formalized in a fitting tribute for college basketball's most outstanding player. Tonight the 16th ranked Crimson Tide plays LSU Tigers at 8:00 PM. The Tigers are 10-2 and are coming off a tight win over South Carolina. Before that game, LSU's best opponent to date was the St. Louis Billikens. The Tigers played that game in St. Louis. The final score was 85-81 for the Billikens. What I remember about the game was how well both teams played. I bet it was the best game the Tigers have played, even in a losing effort. What the Tigers have lacked this season is a win over a nationally-ranked team. Guess what? Here comes Tide. LSU will be ready for this one. 

     If you watched the LSU-Carolina game, two things surprised me. First was how well South Carolina rebounded. The second was South Carolina's ability to drive to the basket for lay-ups. If Alabama can do the same, it will give the Tide a great chance to win. So what does Alabam need to win this game? 

1. Keep Herb Jones out of foul trouble. Herb is a blue-collar player. He prides himself in the manner he plays defense. Sometimes that leads to fouls. He is also prone to charge on his way to the basket.
2. Keep shooting the rock well. If 'Bama blisters the net from downtown, they can win. Great outside shooting opens up the lane for two-point baskets.
3. Alabama needs Reese to have a big game. If he shoots from the outside, it will hurt LSU's rebounding. I think that Rojas can help inside on the boards. Juwan Gary may well play before Rojas. Ambrose-Hylton will get some minutes just for work on the boards,
4. If Bama can keep the turnovers to around ten, it will be very productive. 
5. Cause more turnovers than they make.
6. In your face defense, like in half one of the Arkansas game, is necessary. Alabama won't win by playing sloppy defense.
7. Make 75% or more of their free throws. 
8. Herb Jones needs to cut down on Watford's scoring and rebounding. You aren't going to stop Watford, but just a couple of baskets and boards will make a difference.
9. John Petty needs to slow down Thomas's scoring. Just cut it down six points or so. 
10. Take no bad three-pointers.

           I think Alabama can win this game despite it playing in Baton Rouge. If the Tide gets a fairly officiated game, it would be huge. Of course, fairly officiated rarely happens on the road in the SEC. The Tide won eight of their last ten games, including seven straight. LSU has won four straight. It can well be a COVID classic type game. 

THIS AND THAT...

1. Alabama has an SOS ranking of 12 and a NET of 18.
2. LSU has an SOS of 11 and a NET of 21
3. Alabama and LSU have beaten three common SEC opponents.
4. The line is now between one and one and a half but could swing toward Bama. Update: Tide is now a 1.5 point favorite at 2:00 PM
5. Herb Jones still is suffering from a dislocated finger, and Jordan Bruner from a knee injury. Bruner will not play.
6. I'm predicting the Tide will finish the season with a 22-5 record. I'll go over this on Wednesday.
7. Alabama has beaten three SEC teams in the upper half of the Conference: Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida. The Tide has not played the other teams in the top nine.
8. LSU has beaten one team in the top half: South Carolina
9. Alabama has moved from unranked to #14 in CBS Power rankings. 
10. Alabama's ELO is now 12th. 

The LSU game is about more than winning...

     Good vs. Evil. Is that possible in sports? Remember the winter Olympics and the 1980 game between the Soviet Union and the United States. The Communists had built an unbeatable ice hockey team. The United States team of real amateurs would be their next sacrificial lambs. Lake Placid, New York, seems like forever ago. To many readers, this post will make little sense whatsoever. For those who are older, we will turn back the hands of time and remember when good beat bad, when virtue defeated the Soviet block. The Miracle on Ice is still remembered for everything is right. It was indeed right vs. wrong.

     What does this have to do with the Southeastern Conference? LSU is a rotten basketball program coached by a man who has no idea of what morality means. The only thing that Will Wade believes in is winning. It doesn't matter what he does to reach his goal. I won't bother to repeat Wade's contribution to the FBI's tape recording of a telephone call admitting he bribed a player to come to LSU. That player is Javonte Smart. Smart is still on the LSU team, averaging 15.3 ppg, and plays more minutes than any other LSU player. That FBI tape came to light in a 2017 probe regarding cheating in College Basketball. Nothing has happened since regarding Will Wade and LSU. In a country where we espouse righteousness and honesty, it seems almost laughable that the NCAA continues to sit by on the four schools involved and take little action. It is about head coaches. The whole mess stinks to high heaven. 

    The whole situation brings me back to the right vs. wrong or the good vs. evil argument. When Alabama takes the court to play LSU on Tuesday night, it goes beyond just a game. It is something more than that. It is whether a conference and a governing body will allow cheaters to continue their actions. We live in a divided nation, but I'd like to think that everyone would side with those who play honestly and not with those who don't. I'm not preaching, but I am standing on a soapbox. None of this is about Alabama. It is about a school that everyone knows is cheating and all the schools that don't. The same argument will play out with each team LSU plays.

     Is being on the side of what's right going to help Alabama win? No, after all, we see that morality is beaten by immorality far too often. The world is complicated. This issue regarding LSU, Kansas, Auburn, and Arizona is clear cut, however.  It is about four coaches who don't believe the rules apply to them and four schools who won't fire them. It is about sports programs out of control. If you use a player who cheated you never really win. If LSU cheats on one player they will cheat on more 

     Tuesday night, I'm pulling for the good guys.

Update: Tide is now projected as a three seed by Lunardi.

Kenpom has Bama a one-point dog

CBSsports has Bama as five-seed

My dream 1st round match-up: UAB 

I will repost with updates throughout the day.

 Tide cracks top-twenty in AP and Coaches Poll... 

Gary with the block 

  Finally, the Crimson Tide has fought its way back into the AP and Coaches Top-Twenty Polls.  A quick crack at some mathematics tells me that a four seed is possible for the Tide.  Alabama is 17th in the NCAA NET rankings. All this goes to show that the media and NCAA are starting to take notice of Alabama basketball again. They should. Alabama is going to make the NCAA Tournament Field. The question remains - how low a seed will the Tide finds itself. 

     Alabama isn't going to be undefeated in the SEC. There are just too many good teams, and LSU is one of them. A win on the road in Baton Rouge would be a monstrous win for Oats his team.  I'm betting LSU will be a slight favorite.  The Tigers will be the best team Alabama has played this season since Stanford and Clemson.  The Tide has only lost three games and two of them were against good teams in the early season. The loss to WKU was an NCAA NET killer so to speak.

     If Alabama continues its hot shooting they will beat the Tigers. If Alabama shoots well they can and will beat anyone they play. The last time Alabama was ranked in the top-twenty five was 2011. 

JOHN PETTY NAMED SEC PLAYER OF THE WEEK AGAIN

     The SEC named John Petty, Jr. as the SEC player of the week. Petty has won the award once again. He also won it the week of January 4th. Jaden Shakelfore won it on Dec. 28th.  Three consecutive weeks for Tide guards.

 IMO -

Ambrose-Hylton

Juwan Gary - played some great ball in limited minutes. He was 4-4 from the field including a three. He had two rebounds and a steal. He also blocked three shots. A day's work in just seven minutes.

Darius Miles  - He nailed 2 of 3 from downtown, and showed some real progress to getting involved in the offense.

Keon Ambrose-Hylton - One monster Sports Center dunk, four boards made quite an impression on the commentators. KAH needs to continue to step it up in plugging the gap in the post.

Alex Reese - he made a three,  had three rebounds, and three big steals in only 13 minutes of play. Good for him.  He played some level headed basketball. If you look at the stats for Reese, Ambrose-Hylton, and Gary, they more than made up for the loss of Jordan Bruner. Oats has gotten his players to buy into his system.

HERE'S A STAT TO CHEW ON:

  Alabama has a strength of Schedule which is 32nd in the NCAA. LSU's is 91st. 

 Tide rips the hogs 90-59...

     It could have been much worse.  Had Nat Oats not called the dogs off, Alabama would have scored over 100.  It was, by any standard, a remarkable showcase for Alabama basketball. Anyone who doubted Nat Oats can now be quiet. 

     Excuse me for a brief rant.  How is it that ESPN gives more airtime to Auburn and Shariff Cooper than they give to Alabama? Post-game coverage on SEC and Espn talked about Cooper and AU. The commentators talked about Arkansas and a tough practice.  What they didn't talk about enough was Alabama and a complete dismantling of the Arkansas Razorbacks, or how the Tide did the same to Kentucky the game before. Now, you guys know my love and commitment to Alabama basketball. This is all about 'Bama fatigue in football, and it is spilling over to basketball. I'll now step off the soapbox. 

Herb Jones - UA/Ath.

           Going into the game, there was a great deal of concern regarding  Jones and Bruner's absence. Herb played, he played well, and I couldn't really see much difference in his play. Jones is a warrior. I wonder if Herb will come back for one more season. He could really enhance his professional career by extending his 'Bama career one more season. I've heard rumors. Bruner was not limping. The time frame for his recovery was 4-6 weeks. I'm betting he's back earlier than that.

     Joshua Primo described Jones as a "soldier." It was an apt tribute from a freshman to a senior. Senior leadership by Jones and Petty is making the Tide a tight-knit cohesive team. Kudos to John Petty. He broke ex-great Brian William's long-lasting record for made three-pointers. Petty was four short going into the contest and nailed five.  Speaking of Primo, he won the "hard-hat" award for his play.  Oat's singled him out of his play, saying that he played a good game even though his shooting was off. The young Canadian is going to be a star before he leaves Alabama. He needs some time in the weight room. 

     When Bama shoots the ball well, they will beat anyone they play. I was impressed with their defense, especially in the first half. Great defense leads to great offense. If you are playing solid defense, you'll win some games you might lose if the shooting isn't there.  The Tide outrebounded the Razorbacks without Bruner, and that was big. I thought Ambrose-Hylton had the play of the game. His thunderous dunk on an inbound play knocked the Hog's seven-footer to the deck and then back to the bench. Darius Miles showed his smooth outside shooting. Seven Bama players made three-pointers. Walk-on guard Britton Johnson hit one from downtown and set off a celebration on the Tide bench.  

     A special note to Keon Ellis. His play is giving the Tide some much-needed depth. He is carving some big minutes with his shooting and particularly his defense. I thought Juan Gary played a tough 7 minutes. He will be big-time for Bama this season. Nice seeing him drain the three-point basket. Tip of the hat to Alex Reese. His defense was outstanding. He will be a big help for the Tide, and I suspect he will be back next season.   I think Bama may break the top-twenty tonight. 

IMO -

MVP - John Petty's outside shooting set the tone

Defensive Player of the Game - Gritty performance by Herb Jones

Play of the Game - Keon Ambrose-Hylton gave Bama an "oh, my" moment

A Special Nod - Juwan Gary gave Alabama something to build on