HIGH NOON SHOWDOWN IN NASHVILLE...

Tide needs to win the 50-50 balls.

     Mississippi State is probably not the team Bama wanted today. Kudos to Mississippi State for outlasting Florida in an overtime game.  State played hard in their two games with Bama in the regular season and could have won.  The first was in Starkville, and the Tide won 78-67. The second game was much closer. State played the Tide to end in a 66-63 win. If someone picks the Bulldogs today, I can understand why. The Bulldogs are led by Tolu Smith, a fourth-year senior, who can control the inside. He'll give Charles Bediako all he wants and then some.

     If you watched last night's game between State and Florida, you had to notice the Bulldogs' ease in the paint. Alabama can't let that happen. Look for the Tide to double-team Smith inside. That means State might get some uncontested outside looks.  Mississippi  State made 2-14, which isn't a winning percentage.  When you shoot 28 free throws, it means you are committing yourself to win the boards.  The Bulldogs out boarded the Gators by 12. That was the difference in the game.  That's what Bama will do today. They will commit themselves to winning the boards. If Bama can keep Tolu Smith from a big day, the Tide can win.

     Alabama is going to want to run.  Run early, run a lot, and run late. If the Tide can increase the game to an 80-point score, they should move on to the next round.  Give Mississippi State some room to start quickly because they played on the same floor last night.  If Alabama can make this a running game, they will win.

KEYS TO ALABAMA WIN:

Fewer turnovers

Make 35% of three-points

Make 75% of free throws

Deny State easy passes in the paint

Win the 50-50 balls

Control the boards