Injury-riddled Tide falls to OU 66-61...

    Alabama's Herb Jones gave it his best effort. That's all he could do. He was limping. I'm sure he talked Nate Oats into letting him play.  He's a warrior. It was injuries that ultimately beat the Tide; Bruner couldn't play and will be out for a while longer. Rojas was not anywhere full speed. The TV announcers seemed to have had injury amnesia in failing to mention the Tide's health. That's what it was. Injuries were the difference, but the turnovers and lack of rebounding were the daggers that finally killed the Tide.  

      Some coaches have figured out a way to beat Alabama when their big men are injured.  That's all. The offense is solid, and there is no need for a major rehaul. What Alabama needs is time to mend, starting with Herb Jones. We'll continue to win close games when Herb is well. As long as Herb is limping, Alabama will have trouble. When Jordan Bruner returns, the Tide will be a great offense again. That's not to say that Alex Reese didn't play well. Alabama got a great game from Alex Reese. He had 15 points. He crashed the boards, but he's not a long-winged warrior.  He isn't a sky-king either. What Bama missed most was Herb Jones. When Jones has a bad game, Petty and Prime aren't as effective. Today was a classic example.

    All of that being said, Alabama played a horrible game. We weren't ready to play.  That was Nate Oat's take on the game. That would be pretty much anyone's take on the game. Bama had far too many turnovers, missed too many point-blank shots, and failed to run the offense. All of those things contributed to the loss. All that, and still the chance to win, was there in the last two minutes. That says a lot about Alabama defense. You just can't continue to give up second-chance baskets and win. Oats committed five players to the boards to stop the bleeding. That meant slowing down the offense, however.

    It's possible Alabama could have overcome all of this had they made a few more shots or gotten a few more rebounds. "If wishes were horses, beggars would ride," as the old saying goes. There will be better days. Alabama tees it up with LSU next. The Tigers lost a double-figure scorer today. Let's keep our fingers crossed that Jones recovers. Let's hope that Rojas and Quineraly get well. Oh yeah, let's throw in our best wishes for Jordan Bruner.  

     If you are an Alabama basketball fan, the worse part of a loss is the boo-bird posters. They have hit the posting boards already. Familiarize yourself with that handy ignore button.

Email me: Bamabasketball@protonmail.com

Picknroll's Big12/SEC Challange Selections...

Part 1   

 

      The Big12/SEC Challange is a mid-season breath of winter fresh air. Arguably, the Big 12 is the nation's best conference. The SEC has the best cadre of basketball coaches in the NCAA. The SEC is still looked at by many sports fans as a football conference. The challenge gives the SEC a place to build credibility. It also gives the SEC a chance to show the Selection Committee how good they are. Ten games between the Big 12 and the SEC should be quite a show. Five of these games will have a national impact on post-season play.

GAME 1: Alabama vs. Oklahoma - Easily the most anticipated game of the Challenge. Originally it was to be shown on ESPN2.  It will now be shown on ESPN. Tip-off is 11 CST and will be played on Oklahoma's home court in Norman, Ok. 

   

     The Tide has become the darling of bracketologists this week. Now projected as a two-seed, Alabama is in rarified air. Oklahoma is off two huge wins. First, the Sooners took down # 9 blue-blood Kansas. Then, Oklahoma traveled to Austin and beat the # 5  Longhorns. On Saturday, the Sooners will go for the hat trick with Alabama. 

     Alabama is coming off ten consecutive wins. The latest two were over Mississippi State and Kentucky. Both were hard-fought affairs. Alabama was without Jordan Bruner.  Alex Reese hurt his knee in the Kentucky game, and his status is unknown at this time.  The heart and soul of the Tide, Herb  Jones, fell and hurt his back against Kentucky. He came back on the floor but was clearly limited with what he could do. I think Jones will play, but whether or not he is 100% is unknown. 

     Alabama will start John Petty, Josh Primo, Alex Reese, Herb Jones, and sparkplug Jaden Shackleford.  Shackleford led the Tide's comeback with 21 points against the Wildcats.  Oklahoma is an excellent basketball team and is playing their best ball right now. The Sooners are led by 6-6 guard Austin Reaves, scoring 15.8 ppg, rebounds at 5.1 per game, and assists at 5.1 per game. He leads the Sooners in all three categories. This is a solid basketball program and is coached by a soon to be Hall of Fame coach, Lou Kruger. 

    If Bama is healthy, I pick them to win. Kenpom has Oklahoma as a one-point favorite. Watch out for home cooking and the home-court advantage. If the Tide is not healthy, it will be a tough pull to win. Pick's pick: Alabama

GAME 2: Texas A&M (7-7) vs. Kansas State (5-12). Neither team is ranked in the top-twenty five at this time. The game will be played in Manhatten, Kansas.  These teams will not be confused with good basketball this year. For TAMU,  this is an opportunity to get some positive press. For Kansas State, it is an opportunity to win one at home in the challenge. Both teams haven't enjoyed the success they expected. TAMU is led by Savion Flagg. The 6-7" 225 lb. senior is the foundation of the Aggie team. His numbers have fallen off some in the last few games, reflecting the team's overall performance. Emanuel Miller is averaging  15 ppg and 8 boards. He has been key to the Aggies. He gives the Aggies some additional inside clout. He's 6-7 and 210 lbs. 

    Kansas State is having a woeful season. Coach Bruce Weber has thrown down the gauntlet to his players, telling them their entire season will be defined in the last ten games. "Texas A&M is the biggest game of our season," proclaim Weber, who is putting it all on the line. The game is on Kstates campus, which always helps.  PICK'S pick: Kansas State in a close one. I'm changing my pick here TAMU

Game 3:  Texas Tech (11-5) vs. LSU (11-4) One of the Challenge's premier games. Both teams are fighting for national recognition. Texas Tech is led by Youtube viral baby Mac McClung. He is averaging 17.2 ppg. He'll square off against LSU's Cameron Thomas, guard, who is averaging 21.7 ppg and has 20 or more points in nine games. Ironically, neither of these players are from the States they represent. Both are from Virginia. Trendon Watford, LSU, has had a good season for the Tigers. 

    Will Wade, he of the strong-ass offer, is at a crossroad. His Tigers are no longer in the top-twenty five after losses to Alabama and Kentucky. The Tigers then closed out a tight game with TAMU. The LSU defense has been sketchy at best. If LSU is going to make a run for a good NCAAT seed, it starts with Tech. Texas Tech beat both Kansas and Texas and is now ranked 10th in the AP poll. The game will be played in the Maravich Assembly Center on campus at LSU. I think Texas Tech may have the better team, but LSU is at home. Pick's pick: LSU with reluctance. 

GAME 4: West Virginia (11-4) vs. Florida (9-4) is another marquee game in the Challenge. Bob Huggins is a great basketball coach. Mike White is also a great coach. This is one game I'm looking forward to seeing. Florida lost the best player due to heart problems, and Gators stumbled. They did not fall. Behind the play of Tre Mann, Florida got back on track. Mann is averaging almost 15 points per game and 4 boards.

     West Virginia has been a tough team to play in Morgantown. Another headliner game is in Big 12 territory.  Miles McBride, 6-2 200 lb. guard, has led the Mountaineers to an 11-4 record and 11th in the nation. He's averaging 15.9 ppg and 4.2 assists per game.  Huggins teams are always fundamentally sound. WVU has beaten Texas and Richmond. They lost to Oklahoma. They have had their last three games postponed.

 

      Without Keyonta Johnson and his 16 ppg, Florida has turned to Mann and have seemingly turned the corner with the addition of Colin Castelton, 6-11, a post player who is averaging 12 ppg.  The last few games the Gators have won were against the lower part to the SEC. They beat Vandy, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Vandy. The big win for Florida was a 72-49 win over Tennessee. Pick's pick - WVU

     More problems for Kentucky. They have lost a tremendous opportunity to regain some momentum for their season. The Wildcats cannot play nationally ranked Texas. The game was to be played in Lexington.

Part 2

Game Five:  TCU Horned Frogs (9-6) vs. Missouri Tigers (10-3) is not one of the best games to be played, but very important to each.  The Tigers, currently a projected 3 seed in Bracketology, would gain a nice win over a good opponent. TCU would love a win over an excellent Missouri team for conference bragging rights. 

     Missouri is currently tied for second place in the SEC. Coach Martin's team is experienced and looking to show the SEC and the Selection Committee that they are worthy of a low seeding. While most fans will be watching the Texas Tech v.LSU game, this one is worth the view.  PICK'S pick - Missouri

Game six: Arkansas (13-4) vs. Oklahoma State (10-4) hasn't gotten many fans' attention, but this should be a great game. Oklahoma State is led by Cade Cunningham, the consensus one and done freshman in the NCAA. Okie has self-imposed the postseason as an offer to the NCAA infraction committee to avoid a bigger punishment. Now, some are saying they should withdraw that offer. At any rate, watching Cunningham, who is averaging 18.0 ppg and 6 rebounds. Arkansas will counter with Moses Moody, 16.5 ppg, and J.D. Notae, averaging 14 a game. All five of the Arkansas starters are in double figures. 

     14-4 sounds a lot better than 13-4, according to my Arkansas buddy. It would be a solid win over an outstanding opponent. Bill Musselman seems to have gotten the Hogs back on track after the thrashing by Alabama. Oklahoma State is a good team. They can win.  PICK'S pick - Arkansas in a close one

Game seven: Auburn (10-7) vs. Baylor (2) is one game eagarly anticipated by SEC fans. A Tiger win might make the basketball world think an NCAA bid is in reach. That's a stretch,  but beating the # two ranked team in the nation would be a big time deal. Don't joke yourself, it would be huge for the SEC. Auburn has the size inside to dominate the boards and protect the basket. Now the Tigers have a point-guard who can score and deliver the goods to his teammates. Shariff Cooper has made a difference in the Tiger team, but the Bears will not be impressed. 

     Baylor is a great basketball team. I've watched them in several games and they have no real weaknesses. Ironically, the Bears best player is Jared Butler. He's a 6-3 195 lb. guard who can light it up. The irony, he signed with Alabama only to fail his entrance physical. He found Baylor. You have to wonder "what if" he had stayed at Alabama. He is a 50% shooter from the three-point area. He is a 90%  free-throw shooter.  The Butler/Cooper matchup may be a classic. Baylor is a 13-point favorite. PICK'S pick - Baylor but it could be close.

Game eight: Iowa State (2-8) vs. Mississippi State (9-8) isn't going to rock your basketball world, but this is a big game for Mississippi State. A win gives Hail State a small chance to make the NCAA. Iowa State has been racked with COVID problems all season. The lack of practice and games has made it hard to even be competitive. Example?  State has played 8 more games that Iowa State. 

Mississipp State has the size and the scorers to make this a one-sided affair. Move on, nothing to see here.  PICK'S pick - State

Game nine: Kansas (11-5) vs. Tennessee (11-3) it's Rock Chalk and Ole Smokey. Kansas is a true blue-blood in college basketball. Tenneesee is a pure-bred in SEC basketball. Kansas has lost three consecutive games. The Vols have been highly rated all season due to their inside game and defense.  Tennessee is ranked 18th in the AP Poll.  Kansas checks in at 15th despite the three recent losses.

     This might be an old-fashioned type game. Tenneesee is  going to keep the score down, and Kansas is going to want to make it a track meet. Yves Pons, 6-6 forward is a beast on defense. He is a shot blocker who is averaging two a game.  John Fulkerson, 6-9 forward is the Vols leading scorer. Tennessee isn't going to beat you on offense. They will kill you on defense. Kansas has beaten Texas Tech, Oklahoma, TCU, and West Virginia. They also lost a high scoring affair with Gonzaga.  I'd love to see this game on a neutral floor, but it's in Knoxville. PICK'S pick - Tennessee

     A great day of Hoops. A lot of highly anticipated games. 

 

      

     

Picknroll's mid-season report card...   

      We've reached the halfway point of the SEC season. It's time to grade the 14 SEC teams and give them a grade. These are strictly my decision, but I have a couple of ex-SEC coaches lending me a hand. Like everything else in our country, the COVID 19 virus has had an effect on SEC basketball. Remember that some SEC teams have had major COVID protocol problems and may have much better 2nd half SEC seasons. Vandy and South Carolina have had limited practice time. 

          The arenas are not packed with rabid fans.  The limited attendance, set by Vthe SEC, has taken away the normal home-court advantage. Some teams have seen tracing protocol keep players off the floor. Coaches have learned some new flexibility in practices and in the games themselves. Keep in mind the conference, schools, fans, coaches, and players didn't have any past history of giving them an idea of meeting these new challenges.  First of all, let's give everyone involved in the SEC basketball family to salvaging the season. The Grade for the SEC Conference:   A

VANDERBILT COMMODORES: The Commodores have one of the best backcourt players in the SEC. Scotty Pippin, Jr. is a star and backbone of the Vandy team. That's about all the Commodores have to brag about. COVID has hit Vandy pretty hard. They have not won a single SEC  game, standing at 0-5. Not playing all their games hindered progress for the Vanderbilt Team. Perhaps the Commodores can find some success in the second half of the Conference. Like football, the Vandy troubles have spread to the basketball program.

 Grade: D-

SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS:  Frank Martin, the steel-eyed coach of Carolina, who quite recently took South Carolina to a Final Four, has to be disappointed in his team.  We know Frank Martin will take nothing less than a full effort on the floor.  Like Vandy, Carolina has seen games postponed.  This causes a loss of continuity with the progress of your team. I doubt that Carolina would be good regardless. They have won only one SEC game. They are 13th in the league. The Gamecocks pounded Georgia last night. Better things ahead? I think so. They will get better. 

Grade: D

KENTUCKY WILDCATS:  Wildcat fans aren't happy with John Calipari. Kentucky, replete with five-stars recruits, is struggling. They are proof that the best five players don't always make the best team. Kentucky is getting better. They won't make it to the NCAA.  The best basketball program in the SEC is having an off-year.  Will it continue next season? Time will tell. Kentucky has lost swag, and suddenly teams don't fear them. 5-10 overall won't cut it in the Blue Grass. 

Grade: C-   

Texas A&M: In player-rich Texas, the Aggies seem to be striking out on the talent. 7-7 isn't what Buzz had hoped for more. That record isn't bad, given the roster, but 2-6  in SEC isn't up to Aggie standards. That's not up to Aggie standards.  The Aggies have no chance to make the NCAAT or even a first-day bye in the SECT.  Will the second half of the SEC rota be better. I doubt it.

Grade: C-

OLE MISS REBELS: The Rebels got whacked by Arkansas last night and fell to 2-5 in the Conference. Head Man Kermit Davis has done about all he can do with the Rebel team. They play hard. The talent level just isn't good enough to really compete for the SEC crown. The Rebels are overall record falls to 8-7, and there are tough roads that lay ahead. The good news is they beat rival Mississippi State. That shows how hard the Rebels play.  They may win a  few more.

Grade:. C.

MISSISSIPPI STATE: What's wrong with Mississippi State? They have the size to dominate inside, and they have two great guards who can score against anyone. Granted, the Bulldogs lost some great players. Mississippi State can beat anyone on a given night. They seem to have figured out a way to lose on a given night. Miss. State won't win the SEC, but they might have a say about who does.  State dropped to 4-5 in the league.

Grade: C+

AUBURN TIGERS: How do you grade Auburn? Do you go the BC or AC method? Do I grade Auburn before Cooper or after Cooper? I'm just going to look at the AU record at the end of the first rotation. Auburn became a much better team when Shariff Cooper joined the team. The Tigers are now 4-5 (SEC) and 10-7 overall. Auburn, compared to the teams listed above, is better. Post Cooper, the Tigers are 4-2. Today the Tigers are 4-5 in the Conference and 10-7 overall. They are now a good team. Did I mention they shot 44 free throws to beat Missouri? 

Grade: B-

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS:  Going into the SEC, many thought that Arkansas would compete to win the SEC. Bill Musselman is the master of taking new players from the transfer portals and meddling them into a good team. It's been up and down for the Hogs. At 13-4 overall, most prognosticators believe that the Hogs will get a bid. Arkansas is 5-4 in the Conference. Arkansas is up and down. They were 8-0 before the SEC part of their schedule.

Grade: B

 MISSOURI TIGERS: The Tigers are 5-3 in the SEC and 11-4 overall. COVID cost them two unplayed games. Coach Martin has a good team with upperclassmen leadership.  If Missouri had played those two games and won each, I'd pick them to be the SEC's second-best team. Right now, I have them in a tie with Florida and LSU. The Tigers have good guard play and inside size to compete with anyone. I think we'll know if they are right at the top after the Alabama game that will be played in Columbia.

Grade: A-

TENNESSEE VOLS: Can you say Joe  Lunardi's favorite SEC team? The Vols are a hard team to understand. They have two great inside players and pretty good guards, but they don't pass the eye test to men.  They have no flash. You can't deny that Rick Barnes has put together another outstanding team. What they do have in Kentucky, LSU, Vandy, Vandy, and Auburn on the road. That's tough. I see at least two losses in that bunch.

Grade: A-

FLORIDA GATORS: Florida's chances of winning the SEC went down when the gifted Keyontae Johnson suffered a serious heart injury and will not play this season. Otherwise,  the Gators might be atop the SEC at the halfway mark. Without Johnson, Mark White has done a commendable job of guiding the Gators to second place in the SEC. Florida still must travel to play Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas, and LSU on the road. Ouch. They could lose a couple or more. 

GRADE: A-

LSU TIGERS: Will Wade has guided the Tigers to second place in the SEC. The Tigers have three gifted stars. So why are the Bayou Bengals not in first place? They don't quite understand the concept of defense. I think depth may also hurt the Tigers some. They seem fatigued at the end of the game.  Wade had no answer to the Alabama offense. His players opened mocked Alabama early on and died a slow and painful death after that. The Tigers are 6-3 in the league and 11-4 overall. They have Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Mississippi State on the road.

GRADE: A-

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE:

When Alabama started with a 4-3 record, who thought they could win their next ten games and lead the SEC by three full games?  Not only has Alabama won their nine SEC games, but they also won them in blowouts and a couple with hard nose defense when the shots didn't fall. Nate Oats lost his big man. He has bought alone a couple of freshmen in his five-out offense. One is a muscular big forward and the other smooth as silk combo-guard. He's done this with the best defender in the league and the conference's deadliest shooter. You can't be better than 9-0 in the SEC. Bama is projected as a two-seed now, but a lot of games remain. Alabama fans feel as if they are going on a magic carpet ride. Alabama has five road games left. Missouri, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and South Carolina.  I doubt the Tide will win their next nine games to win the SEC undefeated. The Tide has a three-game lead and has built a cushion to withstand a loss or two.

Grade: A+

     That's how I see them right now.  I welcome your feedback.  Tomorrow we'll lock at the Big12-SEC Challange. This is a real chance for the SEC to get some national recognition.

 

Tide's defense beat Kentucky...

   

Shackleford led a late comeback.

Alabama goes to 9-0 in the SEC by refusing to lose to Kentucky.  The Tide was lighting it up from behind the arc, but they played defense like the win depended on it because it did.  If Alabama hadn't played their best defensive game of the year, they would have lost. Plain and simple, the defense won a  key basketball game over blue-blood Kentucky. The final score was 70-59. A lot of focus will be cast on Jaden Shackleford and Herb Jones. Justifiably so in some ways. I thought Keon Ellis and Juwan Gary's defense gave the Tide a chance to win.  Giving away inches and pounds to Kentucky's big inside game, the pair won the paint war when it mattered most. Gary's numbers don't seem significant. He finished with 3 rebounds, a steal, and a block. That was the Gary game, however. Gary simply shut down Kentucky's inside game in the last five minutes of the game.  Keon Ellis shut down the Kentucky perimeter game when it appeared the Wildcats might beat the Tide.  

      Alabama was four-points with four minutes left in the game. It's hard to describe what happened. The Tide huddled around Oats and returned to the floor, fired up and ready to shut down Kentucky. Alabama outscored Calipari's team 18-5 down the stretch. It wasn't a thing of beauty, but it was a masterpiece nonetheless. Herb Jones and Jaden Shackleford kept drawing fouls and making free throws. Shackleford was a warrior. He continually challenged the Kentucky big men inside. He made a huge rebound and then made another on a defensive goaltending call. And he made free throws.  He was 10-10 for the night, and the big free throws were in the second half. Shackleford finished the night as the leading scorer for either team with 21 points. 

   

  Herb Jones played hurt.  It was painful to watch his struggle, but he didn't quit. With time winding down, he made a huge block to keep the Tide ahead. For the evening, Jones scored 13 points and was 9-10 from the line. Jones was so limited he almost couldn't jump. What he did was lead the team.  John Petty threw in some nasty defense.  Alex Reese was playing a good game until he was injured. It didn't appear to be serious, but he left the game.  Rojas was clearly sub-par from his illness. Bruner was out. Alabama literally played small ball after the Reese fall.  How'd that work out?  Alabama broke even with the 'Cats on the glass, but Alabama got the big boards when they needed them.

   Alabama's high powered offense took a backseat to their tough-nosed defense. With all the threes that Bama has dropped on teams this season, the Alabama defense has held their own. The best way to describe the Tide defense might be disruptive.  They cause turnovers, block shots, rebound the ball well. Herb Jones is the best defensive player I've ever seen wearing the Crimson and White. Jaden Shackleford is an assassin both from the outside and driving the late. He's also a thief on defense and rebounds much better than his height indicates. John Petty is solid, and his leadership is a key to 'Bama's season.  

   

Jones played while hurt.

 Kentucky set the pace of the game. The muddied up the game and did everything needed to win the game.  But Bama once again found a way to win. Basketball is a game of parity.  Good teams find ways to win. Jones, Petty, and Reese's senior leadership have been outstanding. Bruner has been a leader on the sideline. I think he'll be back in two weeks. I have been told that he is ahead of his schedule to return. The Crimson Tide can slit your throat with their shooting and pick your pocket with their hands when playing defense.

     Alabama is going to lose some.  It is not like football. Basketball is a tournament game. Nate Oats wants his team to play their best ball at tournament time. His team finds multiple ways to win games. Alabama will take one game at a time to hone their ability to win. Players will emerge to contribute.  The Tide pulled one out last night. I'm not surprised.

 Tide plays Kentucky tonight at 6 PM...     

Update: Tide now a two seed in Bracketology

Will Rojas play tonight?

      In talking with some of my friends who are very close to the Kentucky program, they tell me that Calipari thinks his team will beat Alabama tonight. Don't joke yourself; Kentucky can indeed do just that. They have quality players who are becoming more experienced every game. The Wildcats beat LSU 82-69 in their last game. With Bruner out, the Tide's inside game will be tested. Rojas might or might no be back. Even if he returns, you have to question whether his illness has slowed him down. I have been told that he had the "regular: flu. The has been speculation that contract tracing was the problem. Alabama will need his junkyard dog work under the boards. Rojas is 6-8, and we need him inside. The Wildcats will try to make this an interior game and hope to make a few outside shots. Boston has improved. That will help Kentucky. I think Jones will slow down Boston. 

       Alabama basketball radio commentator Brian Passink shared an interesting stat. Last season Alabama beat four teams on the road by twenty plus points. They then lost the return game in Coleman Coliseum. I think Alabama will reverse that trend, but it is worthy to note.  Alabama's offense Is unique in the SEC.  Once you have seen it, is it easier to defend the next time up? I think so. Anytime you have seen an offense, it is probably easier to defend next time out. 

     So what does Alabama need to do to beat Kentucky? First and foremost. They need to make three-point baskets. How would Kentucky stop Alabama from doing that?  A team doesn't always shoot well. That's what you hope for if you are the defense. Next, stop Alabama from penetrating. To do that, you have to allow your perimeter players to help defend the paint, which of course, means that the outside shots might be wide open, or in Alabama's case, will be open. Alabama's spacing on offense is a thing of beauty. The Tide has shown they will make that extra pass, which leads to better shots. What does Alabama do? They run their offense. They run the fast break. They try to find a good open shot in the first 10 seconds of their possession. 

      Last year's team was young and hadn't fully embraced the five-out offense. This year's team was inexperienced and understands what to do.  Herb Jones, Jahvon Quinerly, and Jaden Shackleford will take the back to rack and dish outside to the other players on the floor.  If Alabama shoots well, they will win. I don't think Kentucky can outscore the Tide otherwise. Alabama's defense is so much better than last season. 

I like the Tide to win.  I'll take one point and be happy. Will they cover the line? They should. Alabama has now moved up to a 2 seed in Lunardi's site. Kentucky will not make enough threes to win or create enough turnovers. Alabama will make enough threes to win and create enough turnovers/steals to skin the Cats. Look for Ambrose-Hylton and Gary to stop in tonight for some big minutes.  

     

Alabama soars to 8th in Coaches Poll...     

              

    

Oats has 'em headed in the right direction

    From an afterthought, the Crimson Tide finds itself number eight in the Coaches Poll. The Tide has also been voted number nine in the Associated Press Poll. Nat Oats has brought some magic to Tuscaloosa. It is a shame that this team cannot play before 15,000 fans.  I can't imagine how loud Coleman Coliseum might sound. It might be the groundbreaking for a new arena. Brackets now have Alabama a two or three seed. That's high cotton, to use a proverbial Southern phrase. All of this is well and good, but Nat Oats will tell his team the next thing on the agenda is Kentucky.

KENTUCKY WILL WANT TO EVEN THE SCORE

       Kentucky comes to Tuscaloosa on Tuesday night.  They'll be ready. They are not going to just lay down for Alabama because of a season that has gone awry. Kentucky basketball, despite its problems, is still Kentucky basketball. That means they will be well-coached, and they have a court full of five-star recruits. What Kentucky doesn't have is experience.  They gain that every game they play.  Alabama spanked the Wildcats the last time they played. It was a rare home loss for Kentucky.  For Alabama, it was 20 point-win in Lexington. Alabama could finish the first half of their SEC   season without a loss. The Tide would be 14-3, and the odd's on favorite to win the SEC. Here's an observation. Never underestimate talent. Never. 

     Alabama will be without Jordan Bruner, who suffered a knee injury in the first Kentucky game. The status of James Rojas remains unknown at this time. Two sources close to the program have indicated it will be a game-time decision.  The Mississippi State game left a couple of Alabama players bumped and proved.  With no SEC losses, the Tide is entering uncharted territory for this team. Alabama handled the pressure of being the  SEC leader in a tight game with State.  The Wildcats have better inside talent than State and some potentially outstanding guards.  LSU suffered another loss to the Wildcats in Lexington 82-69. 

GREAT INSIDE PLAY AND TALENTED  GUARDS

     Kentucky is similar to State. With two superlative inside players and two good guards, it surprises experts that Kentucky failed to make many three-pointers against 'Bama in the first game.  If Kentucky shots well from outside, Alabama will have their hands full. Brandon Boston, Jr., a highly-touted five-star guard,  scored 18 against LSU. Boston was Kentucky's top recruit, and his slow start has raised the ire of Kentucky fans. Alabama will need to shut down Boston. Herb Jones will probably defend him unless Oats puts Joshua Primo guard on guard.  This would allow Jones to defend one of the two Kentucky inside players. Devin Askew, guard, another five-star, has a good mid-range jump shot. He is a nice ball-handler. It Will likely start at the point for the Wildcats. He had 12 against the Tide in the last game. He is averaging 6 ppg. 

     In the last game, Kentucky gave 'Bama all they could handle inside. Five-star Oliver Sarr scored 6-points and pulled down 5 boards. He averages 10.2 per game. He's 7-0 and weighs 240. Jacob Toppin, 6-9 and weighs 200 lbs., is another KU five-star. He is averaging 6 ppg. Davion Mintz, 6-3 and 190 lb. He is a senior point guard. He is averaging almost 10 ppg. Kentucky looks like they have turned the corner. Bama must play better than they did in the Miss. State game. I think Kentucky will come ready to play with a lot of confidence after the LSU win. 

I like Bama by 9. 

Updates when needed. 

 Tide guts one out against State 81-73...

   

      It was going to be a war.  Mississippi State is the type of team that can beat Alabama. Any team with a dominating inside game and a  couple of good scorers will give Alabama a run for their money. To beat Alabama, you need three things. Outrebound the Tide, have a couple of players who can score and hope Alabama doesn't hit a big number of shots from downtown. They did two of the three. Alabama made enough three-point shots to win.  Credit Mississippi State for coming into Tuscaloosa, a  big underdog, and playing their best game of the season. The  Tide played a  little bit better.  It would be easy to say that Alabama didn't play well, but that wouldn't be true. Alabama played well enough to remain atop the SEC.  When you take a team's best punch and win, it says a lot. Alabama remains undefeated in the Conference with an 8-0 and moves to 13-3 overall. Look for Bama to get in some top-tens tonight and tomorrow.

       Alabama gained some important experience in winning a close game.  They needed to find out if they could hold on to a lead late in the game.  The Tide has a couple of bad turnover near the end but continued to run their offense. Shackleford and Petty each made a three-pointer to secure the win. Petty drained a long one to give the Tide a  six-point lead, which was never relinquished.

     James Rojas was ill and did not dress.  I have been told it is a non-covid issue. Let's hope that is correct. Keon Ambrose-Hylton played well. He hit a made a couple of shots, pulled down some rebounds, and had a couple of assists. Alex Reese played a great basketball game. He defended well, made a three, hit a big basket late, and rebounded well. Without his inside play, Alabama would have lost the game. 

     Alabama frequently fouled, banking on State's 61% from the line this season. State hit 15-17 from the line. That gave State a few extra points,  but Alabama, to their credit, needed a few more, made 11-13 from the line. Although a couple of Tide turnovers were late in the game, it gave State a chance to tie the score. I'm betting Nate Oats spends some time on this before the Kentucky game. 

      Tennessee took one on the chin yesterday. The Missouri Tigers beat the 'Vols in Knoxville.  Missouri has two losses in the SEC, and all other teams have at least three losses. The Tide hosts Kentucky this week. The Wildcats beat LSU on Saturday night. Looking at the SEC standings, it is impressive to note the Tide has beaten LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Kentucky. The Tide has beaten every SEC team they have played, and four of the five teams they have not played are the teams with the worst records. 

      Nine in a row is good work. Nine consecutive wins over Mississippi State is hard to believe,=. Congratulations to TonyTiger for winning the TI prediction contest.

KEYWORD: FOR THE 'BAMA BASKETBALL - How about an extra pass?

BAMA WON DESPITE - Quinerly was only one for nine from the floor. 

MVP - Alex Reese gets my nod.

TIP OF THE HAT - Keon Ambrose-Hylton had a big night, and what about that twisting lay-up?

       

 TIDE TAKES ON MISSISSIPPI STATE ON SATURDAY...   

UPDATE: Ga'Quincey McKinstry might dress today for the Tide

Nate Oats says that the five-star football recruit has been practicing with the hoop team. Whether he plays or not is another question

Jones' leadership has been a key.

   Alabama has rocketed to a # 2 seed, according to many bracketologists. ESPN's Joe Lunardi has moved the Tide up a # 3 seed in the Region 2 Bracket. Baylor is the # 1 seed per Lunardi. None of his predictions are cast in stone. No doubt, the Crimson Tide is headed in the right prediction for better seeding in the NCAA Tournament. This weekend Nat Oat's team hosts the Mississippi State Bulldogs. This game has always been a big game between the two schools.  Alabama is going to be a prohibited favorite for the 5:OO PM tip-off.

         The two teams are going in opposite directions. The Tide is 7-0 in the SEC, and Bulldogs are a respectable 4-3.  I think the Tide wins, but Mississippi State is a big, strong, and lengthy team on defense. Big men will always give Alabama some trouble.  It will be the speed and quickness of Alabama vs. the size and power of Mississippi. State is no pushover. Ben Howland is a great coach. He coached UCLA to consecutive Final Fours. His Bruins lost to Florida in the semi-finals twice. It was an almost impossible job for anyone to be the head coach at UCLA following John Wooden. Howland is arguably the second-best coach to sit on the sidelines in Pauley Pavilion. If State losses it won't be Howland's fault. 

       Mississippi State will present a lot of problems for the Tide. They are solid both inside and outside. They have long wing spans, and they have hops. Adbul Ado is 6-11 and weighs 255 lbs.  Alabama will have a tough time defending him.  Ado is averaging 7 rebounds a game and has blocked 2 shots per game.  He anchors the Bulldog defense in the paint. He averages 5.7 ppg.  He'll have trouble running the floor against Bama.  Fatigue will become a factor for him.  The other half of the skyscraper interior is 6-11 Tolu Smith. He is averaging 8.8 boards an outing, and 13.5 ppg. He is long, strong, and very athletic.  The pair is going to cause some real problems inside.  State is one team that has the size to hurt the Tide's offensive rebounds. Smith will also have trouble keeping up with Bama's quickness and speed.  

       On offense, the Bulldogs have two All-SEC type players. Iverson Molinar, who is a guard, is averaging 17.4 ppg. He is 6-3 and will probably end up guarding  Josh Primo.  D.J.  Steward, Jr. who is a 6-6 two guard is also averaging 17.4 ppg, and is State's best player in my opinion. He has the length to give John Petty some trouble on the catch and shoot. Finally, point guard, Devion Smith, 6-1. 165 lbs rounds out the projected State starting lineup. Smith is quick and fast. Howland will depend on him to try to cut down Quinerly and Shackleford's penetration. 

        I think Bama will win this home game, but let me point out that the interior size of Adu and T. Smith's size will cause the Tide some problems.  The Bulldogs also have two prolific outside players, each of whom can penetrate the paint.  Oats wants to continue the hard-hat attitude on defense. State was embarrassed by rival Ole Miss in their last game. I'm betting the HailState crew will come in ready play a good game. 

        Bama wins by a dozen or more. 

 Alabama's ascension in the polls shouldn't be overlooked...   

Two of 'Bama's Assasins

    If Alabama beats Mississippi State this weekend, it will be hard to keep Alabama from being a top-ten team in the polls. Let's assume that 'Bama bests the Bulldogs this weekend.  A  win will give the Tide a record of 13-3. That means that Alabama would have won 81.25% of their games. This all happened after a pedestrian 4-3 start. Eight wins in a row. That's remarkable. That's remarkable for any NCAA team in an era of parity. The NCAA designed limited scholarships (13) to bring a kind of equality in basketball. Has it worked? When you see non-traditional national powers like Gonzaga, Baylor, Wisconsin, Texas, and Villanova in the top-ten, you'd have to say yes. I know these teams have enjoyed some success in the past. These schools not traditionally powerhouses. This year we have seen Duke, Kentucky, and North Carolina struggle. That might mean the limited scholarship rules have had some success. And then there is Alabama. When Alabama gets five-star and four-star players, it makes me believe that it has helped Alabama. This might give all of us some idea about how Nat Oats can sign five-star players. Of course, you still have to sign them. I suspect that the style of play helps him in this regard.

      What Oats has done in two seasons is unusual. It is not unprecedented but improbable. Someone told me Alabama was playing "streetball." That is not true.  The five-out offense is a highly sophisticated method of allocating shot selection.  Go back to yesterday's post, and you can see where 'Bama shoots the ball. That is not "streetball."  It takes a highly disciplined group of players to execute this offense. To make this work, the Tide needs five players who can make outside shots. Big men are not traditionally good outside shooters. Alabama's big men are. That means a defense has to step outside to guard anyone who can make a three-pointer.  Alex Reese can. Jordan Bruner can. Rojas can make the three. Even Juwan Gary can make them. That came as a surprise to many, but  Oats will not recruit anyone who believes cannot shot or learn to shoot the three (Herb Jones is an example).   

     You want to understand why Jones and Quinerly make so many lay-ups?  It's because the lane is clear by four other defenders who have to drift outside the paint to cut down on outside shooting. What happens if defenders fail to do that? Ask John Petty,  Josh Primo, and Jahvon Quinerly. If the point guards continually shoot lay-ups, the other defenders have to help out. It's a choose your poison. How do you defend this? You really can't. You have to hope the Tide misses the three-ball. Ask LSU what happens when they don't miss. Another benefit of shooting the three-ball is the long rebound. Guess where those go? To the other offenses players who are around the three-point line. Defenders will always collapse inside to help whoever got beat off the dribble in the paint.  John Petty's deluge of threes against LSU is the classic example of the five-out offense. What was ironic was Wade's continuing decision to guard the dribble and let Primo and Petty keep shooting. When Wade finally decided to guard the perimeter,  it was Quinerly who lit it up.  The man defending the 'Bama point will always protect the lane. Take an additional step off of Quinerly, and he'll kill you from the outside. 

     You have to remember that Oats wants a shot put up in 10 seconds or less. That puts tremendous stress on the defense. Defenders have to stop the fast break (which means they end up in the lane), and the Tide shooters come down the floor to look for a space to catch and shoot. When the Tide shoots well, they beat you. 

    So, you have to beat Alabama with your offense.  Good luck with that. When the Tide hard hats you to death with their length and quickness, it is not easy to get a good shot.  Invariably, the offenses will try to slow down and take better shots.  Here's what you have to remember. You don't have to beat opposing offenses every time they have the ball. You have to win some of those battles. It means that the opposing offense must get offensive rebounds. This is the one fundamental weakness I see with Alabama's game plan. If an opposing team makes a lot of second-chance baskets, you might beat the Tide. You also have made your free-throws and cut down on turnovers. 

     If Nat Oats reads this, he might say that the analytics tell him that percentage of winning with his method far outweighs the danger of losing by giving up second-chance baskets.  I think he's correct. Given the Tide's current talent level, they are winning. If the talent level gets even better, the chances of this system increase statistically toward winning.

     Oats has brought something fascinating and special to the Capstone.  I hope the AD will reward him for his contribution. Imagine this,  the Coliseum is packed with 15,000 fans, and Petty drains seven consecutive triples. There would be an explosion that would blow the roof off the world's largest Quanset Hut. I hope I'm there to see that in person.

    Let's make sure fans don't overlook this run.  The national media will come around acknowledging the Tide's basketball prowess.  A few more wins, and we'll be a much-love bracketbaby. Roll Tide.

   

Her

 Alabama destroys LSU 105-75... 

Update: Tide # 10 in CBS Poll

   

Oats had them ready

     Alabama and LSU went into last night's game to find out who was the SEC's best team. The Tide was a shaky one-point favorite. That's Vegas's way of saying they have no idea who should win, but Alabama knew.  This was a astonishing  victory for Alabama. How bad was it for LSU?  They were down 60-32 at the half. The margin grew to forty in the second half. With 7:15 left in the game, Nat Oats cleared the bench,  but when Darius Miles dropped his second three-pointer, the Crimson Tide set a school and SEC record for threes. And seriously, it could have been worse. The top eight Tide players sat out the last seven minutes in the game. 

         John Petty opened up the game with five consecutive three-pointers. It was a blow to the mind of LSU players,, which they never recovered. It was an extraordinary display of a shooters touch. Those shots didn't rattle around. They were, as the late Joe Dean loved saying, "string music".  It wasn't just Petty, however. Freshman Joshua Primo made 6-8 three-point shots. Not to be outdone,  Jahvon Quinerly nailed 6-7 from behind the line. The guards made 20-25 three-points attempts.      

Petty's shooting stunned LSU

      LSU was stunned by this shooting. At the ten minute it was becoming clear that the Tigers were going to lose. I'm not any of us could understand how one-sided this win would become. The Tide made an mind-boggling 14-19 threes in the first half. For the  game, the Tide would shoot 56% from the floor.  When you include that Alabama shot 43 three balls overall, it is almost unbelievable. LSU simply did not have enough firepower to make a meaningful run at Alabama once they fell behind. 

      Alabama  also out boarded the Tigers 43-40.  Jaden Shackleford led Alabama with 8 assists out of a total of 20.  LSU managed only 10. Both teams had four blocks each.  The Tigers had only 12 turnovers and Bama 16. In all fairness, 7 of those turnovers came with substitutes on the floor in last seven minutes. Tip of the hat to Nate Oats for pulling the starters.  I think the Tide would have scored 120 points otherwise. The Tide made its point.  They destroyed LSU on their home floor. 

      In the post game interview, Nat Oats praised the senior leadership, acknowledged that Petty is  the best shooter in the NCAA, and his  pride in Alabama's defense. Petty said it was "just another day in the gym."

IMO:

1. Herb Jones did yeoman's work on Watford. 

2. Petty kept Thomas from scoring often when it mattered most.

3. Shackleford killed the Tigers with his penetration and dishing out for threes

4. Rojas, a bull in the China Shop, led Bama rebounding with limited time on the floor.

5. Alex Reese was elbowed in the throat three times with no calls. Reese is playing his best ball.  His shooting will come around.

6. Quinerly is a magician with the ball. His drive and out passing is outstanding. 

7. Bama is clearly the best team in the SEC right now. I think Missouri second. Tennessee has some problems. LSU better man up or they are done.

 THE NEW NUMBERS: It was an outstanding night for Alabama fans. I expect Bama to be a projected #2 seed in Lunadari's next bracketology. I predict that will replace Tennessee as a #2 seed.

1. The latest KenPom # is 10. 

2. The Tide's SOS is now #14. 

3. Bama's ELO is now #6.  

4. The RPI is #9. 

5. The NET score is up 7 places to #11

Take a look: The Alabama shooting chart from last night shows the Oats philosophy on where to shoot from.

We didn't shoot many twos. Just a few lay ups and offensive rebounds. Two nice offensive tip ins. 

   

    All and all a night to remember and certainly one we should never forget. Roll Tide Roll

 TIDE CAN WIN THE LSU GAME...

   

 I've watched quite a few games in the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. A lot of them were before Pistol Pete's name was formalized in a fitting tribute for college basketball's most outstanding player. Tonight the 16th ranked Crimson Tide plays LSU Tigers at 8:00 PM. The Tigers are 10-2 and are coming off a tight win over South Carolina. Before that game, LSU's best opponent to date was the St. Louis Billikens. The Tigers played that game in St. Louis. The final score was 85-81 for the Billikens. What I remember about the game was how well both teams played. I bet it was the best game the Tigers have played, even in a losing effort. What the Tigers have lacked this season is a win over a nationally-ranked team. Guess what? Here comes Tide. LSU will be ready for this one. 

     If you watched the LSU-Carolina game, two things surprised me. First was how well South Carolina rebounded. The second was South Carolina's ability to drive to the basket for lay-ups. If Alabama can do the same, it will give the Tide a great chance to win. So what does Alabam need to win this game? 

1. Keep Herb Jones out of foul trouble. Herb is a blue-collar player. He prides himself in the manner he plays defense. Sometimes that leads to fouls. He is also prone to charge on his way to the basket.
2. Keep shooting the rock well. If 'Bama blisters the net from downtown, they can win. Great outside shooting opens up the lane for two-point baskets.
3. Alabama needs Reese to have a big game. If he shoots from the outside, it will hurt LSU's rebounding. I think that Rojas can help inside on the boards. Juwan Gary may well play before Rojas. Ambrose-Hylton will get some minutes just for work on the boards,
4. If Bama can keep the turnovers to around ten, it will be very productive. 
5. Cause more turnovers than they make.
6. In your face defense, like in half one of the Arkansas game, is necessary. Alabama won't win by playing sloppy defense.
7. Make 75% or more of their free throws. 
8. Herb Jones needs to cut down on Watford's scoring and rebounding. You aren't going to stop Watford, but just a couple of baskets and boards will make a difference.
9. John Petty needs to slow down Thomas's scoring. Just cut it down six points or so. 
10. Take no bad three-pointers.

           I think Alabama can win this game despite it playing in Baton Rouge. If the Tide gets a fairly officiated game, it would be huge. Of course, fairly officiated rarely happens on the road in the SEC. The Tide won eight of their last ten games, including seven straight. LSU has won four straight. It can well be a COVID classic type game. 

THIS AND THAT...

1. Alabama has an SOS ranking of 12 and a NET of 18.
2. LSU has an SOS of 11 and a NET of 21
3. Alabama and LSU have beaten three common SEC opponents.
4. The line is now between one and one and a half but could swing toward Bama. Update: Tide is now a 1.5 point favorite at 2:00 PM
5. Herb Jones still is suffering from a dislocated finger, and Jordan Bruner from a knee injury. Bruner will not play.
6. I'm predicting the Tide will finish the season with a 22-5 record. I'll go over this on Wednesday.
7. Alabama has beaten three SEC teams in the upper half of the Conference: Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida. The Tide has not played the other teams in the top nine.
8. LSU has beaten one team in the top half: South Carolina
9. Alabama has moved from unranked to #14 in CBS Power rankings. 
10. Alabama's ELO is now 12th.