TIDE CAN WIN THE LSU GAME...

   

 I've watched quite a few games in the Pete Maravich Assembly Center. A lot of them were before Pistol Pete's name was formalized in a fitting tribute for college basketball's most outstanding player. Tonight the 16th ranked Crimson Tide plays LSU Tigers at 8:00 PM. The Tigers are 10-2 and are coming off a tight win over South Carolina. Before that game, LSU's best opponent to date was the St. Louis Billikens. The Tigers played that game in St. Louis. The final score was 85-81 for the Billikens. What I remember about the game was how well both teams played. I bet it was the best game the Tigers have played, even in a losing effort. What the Tigers have lacked this season is a win over a nationally-ranked team. Guess what? Here comes Tide. LSU will be ready for this one. 

     If you watched the LSU-Carolina game, two things surprised me. First was how well South Carolina rebounded. The second was South Carolina's ability to drive to the basket for lay-ups. If Alabama can do the same, it will give the Tide a great chance to win. So what does Alabam need to win this game? 

1. Keep Herb Jones out of foul trouble. Herb is a blue-collar player. He prides himself in the manner he plays defense. Sometimes that leads to fouls. He is also prone to charge on his way to the basket.
2. Keep shooting the rock well. If 'Bama blisters the net from downtown, they can win. Great outside shooting opens up the lane for two-point baskets.
3. Alabama needs Reese to have a big game. If he shoots from the outside, it will hurt LSU's rebounding. I think that Rojas can help inside on the boards. Juwan Gary may well play before Rojas. Ambrose-Hylton will get some minutes just for work on the boards,
4. If Bama can keep the turnovers to around ten, it will be very productive. 
5. Cause more turnovers than they make.
6. In your face defense, like in half one of the Arkansas game, is necessary. Alabama won't win by playing sloppy defense.
7. Make 75% or more of their free throws. 
8. Herb Jones needs to cut down on Watford's scoring and rebounding. You aren't going to stop Watford, but just a couple of baskets and boards will make a difference.
9. John Petty needs to slow down Thomas's scoring. Just cut it down six points or so. 
10. Take no bad three-pointers.

           I think Alabama can win this game despite it playing in Baton Rouge. If the Tide gets a fairly officiated game, it would be huge. Of course, fairly officiated rarely happens on the road in the SEC. The Tide won eight of their last ten games, including seven straight. LSU has won four straight. It can well be a COVID classic type game. 

THIS AND THAT...

1. Alabama has an SOS ranking of 12 and a NET of 18.
2. LSU has an SOS of 11 and a NET of 21
3. Alabama and LSU have beaten three common SEC opponents.
4. The line is now between one and one and a half but could swing toward Bama. Update: Tide is now a 1.5 point favorite at 2:00 PM
5. Herb Jones still is suffering from a dislocated finger, and Jordan Bruner from a knee injury. Bruner will not play.
6. I'm predicting the Tide will finish the season with a 22-5 record. I'll go over this on Wednesday.
7. Alabama has beaten three SEC teams in the upper half of the Conference: Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida. The Tide has not played the other teams in the top nine.
8. LSU has beaten one team in the top half: South Carolina
9. Alabama has moved from unranked to #14 in CBS Power rankings. 
10. Alabama's ELO is now 12th.