Will 'Bama earn an NCAAT bid?


         I am always interested in what Tide fans believe what it will take to receive an NCAA bid. Most have a pretty decent idea of the road ahead. The single most important game on the remaining regular season is Mississippi State. That game is a quadrant 1 contest and is the last chance the Tide has beat a team in that quadrant. An additional opportunity in the SEC Tournament might be possible.

Quad 1 wins are essential to team struggling to find their way to the Big Dance. If Alabama loses to Mississippi State, the road to an NCAA postseason becomes almost impossible. What do I think it will take for Alabama to make the field of 64? Remember, Alabama can only control what they do. The Tide needs some help from other bubble teams to see their own chances fall by the wayside. I think Alabama needs a minimum of 19 wins to secure a bid. I'd feel more comfortable with 20 wins. Let's assume the Tide beats State. The Tide has a decent opportunity to win their remaining regularly scheduled games. South Carolina and Vandy are home games. Then the Tide will travel to Missouri. Columbia is a tough place to win a game. Win those four games, and the Tide has 19 wins in the regular season. The Tide could finish no worse than 19-13. That isn't a guaranteed resume, but it's pretty good. Say whatever you want, but 20 wins is a lot better than 19. The road to the NCAA is a steep one for Alabama; however, it is complicated. The Tide is walking on the razor's edge. I know one thing. I'd hate to play Alabama in the opening round of the NCAA. If the "good" Tide shows up someone is going home early. 

My late friend, Ben Cook, a great writer, and the most genuine human being I have ever known told me that getting an NCAA bid is rarely won at the end of a season. He said it is a season-long trek. If the Tide doesn't make it, three home losses did incalculable damage. The pre-season injuries and an NCAA decision hurt the Tide. The injury to Herb Jones, early on and recently, hurt the Tide. A stunning loss to  Penn looks bad.  Blown leads led to painful losses.  If Alabama makes the NCAA it will be a memorable year for a team that wants to become relevant again. If the Tide falls short it is to returning players that small things not done might have disastrous results for your season. So the final question for all the fans, players, and coaches is whether being where we are today is a good thing or a bad thing. Roll Tide. 

TIDE BLOWOUTS OLE MISS 103-78

     A blowout is fun. How long has it been since the University of Alabama men's basketball team had a game like the Ole Miss game? The game had a little bit of everything. The Rebels jumped out to a 9-2 lead, which put whatever a land shark is into a frenzy. The Rebel fans could sense a colossal win and killing any chance of Alabama making the NCAAT an impossibility.  The sense of slaughter was in the air. 

     A funny thing happened to the Rebels on the way to a win. They got destroyed. Destroyed is too mild term to use.  I'm not sure exactly what the correct word might be, but there has to some reference to embarrassment.  The only area where Ole Miss beat Alabama in any category was technical fouls.  They got the hat trick. The technicals were some significant differences of opinion with the officials. Kermit Davis was saved from personally watching his home standing team get the death penalty. Lucky him. 

     Alabama made 43% of their three-point shots and  54% overall from the floor. The Tide won the rebound battle. Ole Miss had more turnovers than Bama. Kira Lewis had another double-double. He had 17 points, 11 assists, and no turnovers. John Petty scored 21 points and played a tremendous defensive game.  Five Tide players scored in double figures. In the Lo and Behold category, Javian Davis put the Tide over the century mark with a three. I believe he tied Donta Hall for the career-high percentage from downtown. 

    More than anything, the game had to be reassuring for Tide fans who had begun the negative talk so inherent with basketball. If this is what Oats can do with talent, he didn't recruit what will happen in the future? Stay tuned, it might be exciting. Whether 'Bama can make it to the Big Dance is yet to be decided. For a few days, we can all bask in the warmth of a fun day and smiles on the faces of Alabama players.

ALABAMA WINS KEY GAME ON THE ROAD...

    Winning on the road in the SEC is tough. The league doesn't have a pit stop.  I don't know how often any road team scores over a hundred points to win. Alabama did that last night when they put up 103 on the board. Ole Miss scored 78 and saw their coach tossed when he picked up two technical fouls. The Tide completely dominated the Rebels. If it had been a prizefight, the ref would have stopped it. The win keeps Alabama's NCAAT hopes alive. Their 15-12 win-loss doesn't seem impressive, but the Tide's SOS does. Add four or five more wins to the current record, and Alabama might make it. I'm not holding my breath, but I'm not giving up hope the Tide might get a bid either. 

     Kira Lewis, John Petty, and Jalen Shackleford put on quite a show.  Lewis's quick start matched an Ole Miss red-hot begging.  Alabama's first run gave the Tide its first lead. Later,  Shackleford made three downtown bombs to give Alabama a healthy lead and coupled with a stingy defense caused Ole Miss trouble on the perimeter. Late in the first half, Lewis found Petty underneath the basket for three uncontested baskets. If Ole Miss tried to overplay the three, Lewis threw some laser-like passes to Tide players in the paint. Ole Miss even used a 1-3-1 zone. Alabama ripped it apart. Whatever the Rebels tried didn't work. The Tide didn't shut down Tyree, but who does? What Alabama did was to shut down everyone else when it mattered. It was an old, Wimp Sanderson belief come to life. Alabama won every statistical battle. Ole Miss handcuffed themselves with three technical fouls. It was an impressive win and gives continued hope the NCAAT might still be in reach. 

    Under the lo and behold category, it was Davis who launched a three to put the Tide over 100.  

Tomorrow let's talk about what Alabama needs to do to make the NCAA Tournament. 

TIDE NEEDS A WIN OVER THE REBELS... 

When the season started, I wrote a blog saying that Alabama would win some games they should probably lose, and lose some games they should win. That is precisely what is happening to the Tide. The question is why and the answer is evident in some ways. It's not so clear in others.

1 The Tide lost a First Team JUCO All-American who would have helped the Tide. Rojas would have started at the small forward spot. Petty would have been a full time shooting guard. I think Petty has done a great job this season. He plays three positions in most games. He is a shooting guard, the small forward, and is the best post player Alabama has on offense. None of which is conducive to concentrating on his shooting which is what the Tide needs most from him. He is our best rebounder.

2. Alabama's two post players are not dominating the inside. They can only be as good as their talent level allows, and you can't fault them for that. They play hard. Each has shown improvement but falls short of what the Tide needs. I would love to see both of them on the floor in some situations.

3. Kira Lewis plays far too many minutes. That leads to turnovers. He is Bama's best player. He needs some help in the form of rest. Beetle Bailey plays hard, but he is not a point guard. He can motor. I thought his last game was his best game of the year.

4. The bizarre decision by the NCAA to deny Q the chance to play this season was unfair and unfounded. The young man had been through the trauma of false allegations and mental stress. The NCAA, which denied him the chance to play allows two SEC coaches which questionable ethics to continue to coach. That duality is hard to swallow. Q is a great player. The former  5-Star recruit would have given the Tide a dynamic backcourt.

5. The Tide is unfocused at times. Okay, a lot of times. That one is on the coaching staff. Alabama makes the same mistakes regularly. Some of the errors come from fatigue. Others are just sloppy execution.

   I'm sure other reasons come to the reader's minds. So that brings us to a much bigger question. Can the Oats offense be a consistent winner in the SEC? Our rebounding is not up to par. It falls somewhere between below average and horrible. A talented big man would help, but can a big man play the uptempo game required by Oats? Stamina is always a question regarding big men. Would two quality big men be an answer? It's hard enough to sign one big man much less two.

   I wonder if Coach Oates underestimated the SEC. The five out system may work in a league without quality inside players. Or perhaps the injuries have been too much for any team to bear. My best guess is that the missing players will cost the Tide an NCAA bid. I have questions about the system, but that may be unfair to judge at this time. There is an adage we all might do well to remember - a shooter's gotta shoot. The Tide is likely to lose games every season when the shooting goes cold. Shooters are always going to shoot because most think the next shot goes in.  The inconsistency of the three-point shooting is going to be an ongoing problem for any team. When your offensive strategy consists of lay-ups and downtown shots which eliminates mid-range shooting, it is going to cost you some games, in my opinion. Oats believes the analytics favor his system. He might be right (I think he could be correct), but I think a team with so few players isn't a fair measure of his belief. I think Tide fans need to calm down and give the man some unfettered support. Perhaps we haven't seen the true effectiveness of his system.

Alabama takes on Ole Miss on the road tonight. Most Vegas betting houses have Alabama as a 2.5 point dog. Bama needs a win to keep postseason hopes alive.

Crash and burn?

     It isn't easy being an Alabama basketball fan. For those who witnessed the Newton and Sanderson years, basketball since those times has been frustrating at best. Alabama was ranked #1for week under Mark Gottfried and then fell off the face of the earth. Unfortunately, the trials and tribulations have far outweighed the highs that come with success. Today, the Crimson Tide takes on a Georgia team whose record is 12-10.  The Bulldogs are 10-2 at home. Alabama isn't exactly road warriors are they? 

      Injuries had plagued the Tide before the season began. Then Q was denied eligibility this year. Then team leader Herbert Jones broke his wrist. None of those are conducive to having a winning record this season. But today, it isn't the physical injuries that concern me. It is the mental state of a basketball team that has lost three consecutive games in the SEC.  Two of those games were at home. So can Alabama set aside recent history and get back on the winning track? I'm not sure the Tide can win at Georgia, but I hope that's wrong.

     Alabama has some problems they could fix. Using your head is at the top of the list. Poor decisions with the ball have plagued the team all season long, but the 20 turnovers against Tennessee is depressing. It seemed as if the Tide had turned the corner regarding turnovers. The last game set a new standard for sloppy play and careless passing. Georgia isn't a great team, and Alabama could win this game. I hope the players have a better mental attitude than the fanbase. Patience isn't a virtue for Alabama fans. Before the season began, I said it would take three years for Oats to get his program rolling. I'll stick by that.

Two teams are trying to make the postseason.

     Tuesday night, the 12-9 Tennessee Vols, the SEC Cinderalla of last season, comes to Coleman Coliseum to play the 12-9 Crimson Tide. One of these teams is going to see their hopes for the NCAA, and perhaps the NIT goes up in flames. Despite the loss of Herb Jones, I'm picking the Tide to win a close game. Here's what I'll say about the Vols. They may be the worst defensive team in the SEC.  The game may not be a masterpiece, but I think Bama has the edge due to playing at home. 

      Alabama has a chance to light it up on offense and beat Tennessee. Alabama leads the SEC in scoring with 82.2 ppg. Tennessee 12th with 66.5 ppg. That is a significant difference. The Vols do not have any player in the top 20 in scoring. The Tide has two in the top 10.  The Volunteers don't have a rebounder in the top 15. 'Bama, despite their rebounding troubles, have one player in the top ten.

     After a stellar season, the Vols haven't been able to show the SEC they a good team.  Tennessee has lost four of its last seven home games. If you know SEC, that is phenomenal. Rebounding has been an issue for the Tide. Consider this - Tennessee has been out boarded 82-45 in the last two games. Rick Barnes turned down UCLA to return to Thompson-Bowling. His 4.7 million dollar salary hasn't made Tennessee fans very happy. In all fairness to Barnes, the Vols return zero starters from last season.

      Alabama has installed a new offense, and they lead the league in scoring, and surprisingly, Alabama is 2nd in the SEC in rebounding. Here's a stat that turnover happy Alabama needs to keep in mind. Tennessee leads the SEC in assists. Alabama has made 82 more threes than the Vols. All the numbers point to a Tide victory, but the loss of Herb Jones is hard to quantify. We are also unsure if Bolden will be able to return. Bolden can give Lewis and Shackleford some rest. One overlooked number is that Forbes had nine rebounds in limited minutes. Look for him to increase his minutes. Alabama is not a good defensive team, but they are better than Tennessee. I picked Bama by two, but I do think the Tide could put up some big numbers if they are shooting well.