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Monday, February 3, 2020

Two teams are trying to make the postseason.

     Tuesday night, the 12-9 Tennessee Vols, the SEC Cinderalla of last season, comes to Coleman Coliseum to play the 12-9 Crimson Tide. One of these teams is going to see their hopes for the NCAA, and perhaps the NIT goes up in flames. Despite the loss of Herb Jones, I'm picking the Tide to win a close game. Here's what I'll say about the Vols. They may be the worst defensive team in the SEC.  The game may not be a masterpiece, but I think Bama has the edge due to playing at home. 

      Alabama has a chance to light it up on offense and beat Tennessee. Alabama leads the SEC in scoring with 82.2 ppg. Tennessee 12th with 66.5 ppg. That is a significant difference. The Vols do not have any player in the top 20 in scoring. The Tide has two in the top 10.  The Volunteers don't have a rebounder in the top 15. 'Bama, despite their rebounding troubles, have one player in the top ten.

     After a stellar season, the Vols haven't been able to show the SEC they a good team.  Tennessee has lost four of its last seven home games. If you know SEC, that is phenomenal. Rebounding has been an issue for the Tide. Consider this - Tennessee has been out boarded 82-45 in the last two games. Rick Barnes turned down UCLA to return to Thompson-Bowling. His 4.7 million dollar salary hasn't made Tennessee fans very happy. In all fairness to Barnes, the Vols return zero starters from last season.

      Alabama has installed a new offense, and they lead the league in scoring, and surprisingly, Alabama is 2nd in the SEC in rebounding. Here's a stat that turnover happy Alabama needs to keep in mind. Tennessee leads the SEC in assists. Alabama has made 82 more threes than the Vols. All the numbers point to a Tide victory, but the loss of Herb Jones is hard to quantify. We are also unsure if Bolden will be able to return. Bolden can give Lewis and Shackleford some rest. One overlooked number is that Forbes had nine rebounds in limited minutes. Look for him to increase his minutes. Alabama is not a good defensive team, but they are better than Tennessee. I picked Bama by two, but I do think the Tide could put up some big numbers if they are shooting well.

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