TIDE NEEDS A WIN OVER THE REBELS... 

When the season started, I wrote a blog saying that Alabama would win some games they should probably lose, and lose some games they should win. That is precisely what is happening to the Tide. The question is why and the answer is evident in some ways. It's not so clear in others.

1 The Tide lost a First Team JUCO All-American who would have helped the Tide. Rojas would have started at the small forward spot. Petty would have been a full time shooting guard. I think Petty has done a great job this season. He plays three positions in most games. He is a shooting guard, the small forward, and is the best post player Alabama has on offense. None of which is conducive to concentrating on his shooting which is what the Tide needs most from him. He is our best rebounder.

2. Alabama's two post players are not dominating the inside. They can only be as good as their talent level allows, and you can't fault them for that. They play hard. Each has shown improvement but falls short of what the Tide needs. I would love to see both of them on the floor in some situations.

3. Kira Lewis plays far too many minutes. That leads to turnovers. He is Bama's best player. He needs some help in the form of rest. Beetle Bailey plays hard, but he is not a point guard. He can motor. I thought his last game was his best game of the year.

4. The bizarre decision by the NCAA to deny Q the chance to play this season was unfair and unfounded. The young man had been through the trauma of false allegations and mental stress. The NCAA, which denied him the chance to play allows two SEC coaches which questionable ethics to continue to coach. That duality is hard to swallow. Q is a great player. The former  5-Star recruit would have given the Tide a dynamic backcourt.

5. The Tide is unfocused at times. Okay, a lot of times. That one is on the coaching staff. Alabama makes the same mistakes regularly. Some of the errors come from fatigue. Others are just sloppy execution.

   I'm sure other reasons come to the reader's minds. So that brings us to a much bigger question. Can the Oats offense be a consistent winner in the SEC? Our rebounding is not up to par. It falls somewhere between below average and horrible. A talented big man would help, but can a big man play the uptempo game required by Oats? Stamina is always a question regarding big men. Would two quality big men be an answer? It's hard enough to sign one big man much less two.

   I wonder if Coach Oates underestimated the SEC. The five out system may work in a league without quality inside players. Or perhaps the injuries have been too much for any team to bear. My best guess is that the missing players will cost the Tide an NCAA bid. I have questions about the system, but that may be unfair to judge at this time. There is an adage we all might do well to remember - a shooter's gotta shoot. The Tide is likely to lose games every season when the shooting goes cold. Shooters are always going to shoot because most think the next shot goes in.  The inconsistency of the three-point shooting is going to be an ongoing problem for any team. When your offensive strategy consists of lay-ups and downtown shots which eliminates mid-range shooting, it is going to cost you some games, in my opinion. Oats believes the analytics favor his system. He might be right (I think he could be correct), but I think a team with so few players isn't a fair measure of his belief. I think Tide fans need to calm down and give the man some unfettered support. Perhaps we haven't seen the true effectiveness of his system.

Alabama takes on Ole Miss on the road tonight. Most Vegas betting houses have Alabama as a 2.5 point dog. Bama needs a win to keep postseason hopes alive.