Alabama's ascension in the polls shouldn't be overlooked...   

Two of 'Bama's Assasins

    If Alabama beats Mississippi State this weekend, it will be hard to keep Alabama from being a top-ten team in the polls. Let's assume that 'Bama bests the Bulldogs this weekend.  A  win will give the Tide a record of 13-3. That means that Alabama would have won 81.25% of their games. This all happened after a pedestrian 4-3 start. Eight wins in a row. That's remarkable. That's remarkable for any NCAA team in an era of parity. The NCAA designed limited scholarships (13) to bring a kind of equality in basketball. Has it worked? When you see non-traditional national powers like Gonzaga, Baylor, Wisconsin, Texas, and Villanova in the top-ten, you'd have to say yes. I know these teams have enjoyed some success in the past. These schools not traditionally powerhouses. This year we have seen Duke, Kentucky, and North Carolina struggle. That might mean the limited scholarship rules have had some success. And then there is Alabama. When Alabama gets five-star and four-star players, it makes me believe that it has helped Alabama. This might give all of us some idea about how Nat Oats can sign five-star players. Of course, you still have to sign them. I suspect that the style of play helps him in this regard.

      What Oats has done in two seasons is unusual. It is not unprecedented but improbable. Someone told me Alabama was playing "streetball." That is not true.  The five-out offense is a highly sophisticated method of allocating shot selection.  Go back to yesterday's post, and you can see where 'Bama shoots the ball. That is not "streetball."  It takes a highly disciplined group of players to execute this offense. To make this work, the Tide needs five players who can make outside shots. Big men are not traditionally good outside shooters. Alabama's big men are. That means a defense has to step outside to guard anyone who can make a three-pointer.  Alex Reese can. Jordan Bruner can. Rojas can make the three. Even Juwan Gary can make them. That came as a surprise to many, but  Oats will not recruit anyone who believes cannot shot or learn to shoot the three (Herb Jones is an example).   

     You want to understand why Jones and Quinerly make so many lay-ups?  It's because the lane is clear by four other defenders who have to drift outside the paint to cut down on outside shooting. What happens if defenders fail to do that? Ask John Petty,  Josh Primo, and Jahvon Quinerly. If the point guards continually shoot lay-ups, the other defenders have to help out. It's a choose your poison. How do you defend this? You really can't. You have to hope the Tide misses the three-ball. Ask LSU what happens when they don't miss. Another benefit of shooting the three-ball is the long rebound. Guess where those go? To the other offenses players who are around the three-point line. Defenders will always collapse inside to help whoever got beat off the dribble in the paint.  John Petty's deluge of threes against LSU is the classic example of the five-out offense. What was ironic was Wade's continuing decision to guard the dribble and let Primo and Petty keep shooting. When Wade finally decided to guard the perimeter,  it was Quinerly who lit it up.  The man defending the 'Bama point will always protect the lane. Take an additional step off of Quinerly, and he'll kill you from the outside. 

     You have to remember that Oats wants a shot put up in 10 seconds or less. That puts tremendous stress on the defense. Defenders have to stop the fast break (which means they end up in the lane), and the Tide shooters come down the floor to look for a space to catch and shoot. When the Tide shoots well, they beat you. 

    So, you have to beat Alabama with your offense.  Good luck with that. When the Tide hard hats you to death with their length and quickness, it is not easy to get a good shot.  Invariably, the offenses will try to slow down and take better shots.  Here's what you have to remember. You don't have to beat opposing offenses every time they have the ball. You have to win some of those battles. It means that the opposing offense must get offensive rebounds. This is the one fundamental weakness I see with Alabama's game plan. If an opposing team makes a lot of second-chance baskets, you might beat the Tide. You also have made your free-throws and cut down on turnovers. 

     If Nat Oats reads this, he might say that the analytics tell him that percentage of winning with his method far outweighs the danger of losing by giving up second-chance baskets.  I think he's correct. Given the Tide's current talent level, they are winning. If the talent level gets even better, the chances of this system increase statistically toward winning.

     Oats has brought something fascinating and special to the Capstone.  I hope the AD will reward him for his contribution. Imagine this,  the Coliseum is packed with 15,000 fans, and Petty drains seven consecutive triples. There would be an explosion that would blow the roof off the world's largest Quanset Hut. I hope I'm there to see that in person.

    Let's make sure fans don't overlook this run.  The national media will come around acknowledging the Tide's basketball prowess.  A few more wins, and we'll be a much-love bracketbaby. Roll Tide.