How many wins does the Tide need?

Will 19 be enough wins?

Green returns to practice -
Update: Grant says Green will not play
against Arkansas but might be available for State.

     You never know exactly how many it will take. But I think that if we have 19 wins in the regular season and 1 of those is Mississippi State we will get the. Getting a bid is better than not having one but you have to hope to get a lower seed. The 8 & 9 seeds are the kiss of death. If Bama somehow wins 3 of their last 4 and then takes 2 in the SEC we will be a 6 or 7 I hope. Bama has the RPI and SOS but the wins are low and we have only 1 quality win according the bracket guys. A win over State would give us 2. I think the win over Tennessee considering the circumstances was a pretty good win.

     Let's look at the remaining games. First, is Arkansas which is being played at  Wal-Mart. The Bud Walton Arena is the top facility in the SEC for home court advantage. This is going to be one tough game. I think if Green has a great game and we don't turn the ball over we have rshot. The Razorbacks have been team Prozac of the league, but they have been hard to beat in Fayetteville. This game would be a real shot in the arm for the Tide. The 'Hogs RPI is currently 87. That would be a big hit if the Tide loses and might even hurt a bit if we win. Life on the road is tough. Alabama has had some decent games in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks now stand at 17-10 and have 5-7 SEC Record. Alabama matched up extremely well when Mitchell was a part of team. Grant will probably go with Jacobs if he can play. The players have learned alot in the last three or four games when they were put under the gun with suspensions This should make Alabama a much better team. Still it is hard to pick against Arkansas. My gut tells me Alabama but my head says Arkansas.

     Alabama returns from Thursday night's game to face Miss. State. This is the biggest game the Tide will face all year. If they lose to Arkansas and then lose to Miss. State we might be lucky to get in the NIT. However, if the Tide wins against ranked Miss. State or at least ranked before playing Kentucky at home tonight things start to look better. State is at 19-8 and 6-6 in the SEC. Most have them penciled in already. A lot of State fans think that the Bulldogs will be State tonight. I hope so. I don't think so. Three things are in States favor however; its in Starkville, Moultrie and Sydney. This is one team that can bang inside with the Cats if they get a few calls it will be interesting. Alabama MUST beat State. It's that simple. Beat State and Alabama is knocking on the door.  You have to believe that Alabama will beat Aubuie quickly and not quietly.  This is a game that the Tide has to shine to the rest of the nation and convince some voters they belong. Beating State will set the table. A big win over Auburn almost puts us in. It might even put us in the field. I like the home team in an exciting game.

     Finally, we go to Oxford. Of all the places to end a season this has to be a worst case scenario. Not only do we historically play bad in Northern Mississippi but we don't match up well with them. We have to beat them on defense and beating someone on the road with a press could end a free throw marathon for the home game. On top of that this game might actually decide if Bama or Ole Miss gets an invite. Tide fans need to pull hard for State to win tonight over the Wildcats and Ole Miss to drop a couple.

    I can see 2-2 easily. You can think that 3-1 is possible and it might be. 4-0 would be tough but Alabama has the defense to make it happen. You can also see 1-3. State has a big inside game. Green will be tested. Moultrie is the leagues MVP along with that kid from the pro team out of Lexington. Bost always saves his best for Bama,  and he seems to always do it late. So to be fair. We are 16-9 with 4 games. That might end up as 18-10. Not impossible. Alabama's ace in the hole is that the NCAA gives the Tide some leeway for 2 of the losses while Green and Mitchell were suspended. That might help us get in but it won't matter about being a bad seed. The may cut the some slack for those two game, but they won't cut us anything for the seed.