Is 'Bama ready for Mississippi State? 

   Someone asked me if I thought Alabama was folding "like last year?" I don't think so, but there are some disturbing trends.  At a time when teams need to be gelling, the Tide seems to have lost the mojo. There are Three games are left to get it back. A loss to Mississippi State will kill the Tide's two seed. All of us remember the late-season collapse last season. No one wants a repeat.  I think we'll have an answer around 7 PM on Saturday night. Between now and then, I bet Nate Oats is doing everything he can do to win the game. We'll see what he's got. It is a pressure-packed game for Alabama, and Mississippi State has nothing to lose. 

       Mississippi State has a roster that will cause Alabama a lot of problems. They have two outstanding inside players. State also has two guards that can play hard in the lane and make the three. When you look at the State lineup, you have to wonder why they've had so much trouble winning. The Bulldogs are in 9th place in the Conference and have a 7-8 record. They are 13-11 overall. In Tuscaloosa, the Tide beat State 81-73. D.J. Stewart had 27 points and shredded the Tide's defense in the paint. If Alabama is going to win, they've got to cut down on State's ability to win in the lane. Tolu Smith, Post, had 9 boards. The Tide did keep State's two big men from scoring a lot of points. Smith and Abdul Ado combing for 14 points.  Ado had only 1 rebound. The Tide's defense on the two bigs was the difference in that game. The Tide isn't likely to have that much luck in Starkville, but the Tide cannot allow State to control the boards. 

     One thing Oats does have to throw at State is Jordan Bruner and Juwan Gary. The pair was the only bright spot in the Arkansas game, and Bama needs some inside points and boards tomorrow. They also need John Petty to make some three-point baskets. I have no idea what has happened to Joshua Primo, but he needs to play better. He seems to have lost his confidence. Herb Jones needs to stay out of foul trouble. We need balanced scoring. Quinerly needs to have better ball security. He needs to challenge State in the lane, but the State defenders' length will make it tough. I'd look for Jones to try to establish the drive and dish part of the offense.

     Alabama needs to understand that they will be defended by everyone they play, just like Arkansas. The gap defense was atrocious against Arkansas, and the Tide paid the price for that. Stewart and Iverson Molinar are going inside. Iverson is also a good outside shooter. The state is shooting the three-ball better, but their bread and butter are taking good shots near the basket.  The Tide needs to quit taking bad shots. If Bama shoots 45 %, they'll win. 

KEYS TO WIN:

1. I was disappointed with Coach Oats when it was clear that the officiating was one-sided in the Arkansas game.  He could have exploded, got a technical, and let the officials know he wasn't happy. It would have let his players know he had their backs. If things get out of hand, maybe he'll understand he needs to try a different approach in the SEC.

2. Alabama needs to play better gap defense, which will cut down fouls and free throws. Bruner, Gary, Rojas, and Reese need to be ready for a war inside.  

3. Shot selection has gotten worse. Maybe the team feels they need to make a few threes regardless. I don't think that will work. Stick to your game plan, and it will work.

4. Herb Jones and Jahvon Quinerly will need to take the ball inside. If either or both can establish an inside game off the dribble, it will open up the outside game. I have no doubt that Shackleford will wear out State defenders inside and keep them off the perimeters. 

5.  Alabama needs to settle down and make a few threes. They have seemingly forgotten the "extra pass" that defined the early success they had on offense. 

6.  Alabama needs to cut down on giving up offensive rebounds. That is an Achilles heel for Bama. But the return of Bruner will help. Juwan Gary is going to be an important player for Alabama down the stretch. 

7.  Run. Alabama needs to run. There isn't a team in the SEC that can match the foot speed of the Tide. 

8. Sloppy ball-handling has hurt the Tide. Alabama needs to keep the turnovers down to 10. 

9. Make 75% of the free throws. Alabama has done a good job this season, but stepping it up a little will mean a lot.

10. Play like you are a champion. 

    Bama should win this game. They can cut down the nets when they do. I think this is going to be a blue-collar battle down to the last two minutes. The Tide is a 6 point favorite. I'm very concerned about Alabama's late-season play right now. Alabama needs to get back in the groove. You might think that State, Auburn, and Georgia are easy games to win.  I'd think again. Roll Tide