Tide travels to Missouri for a key game...

Lunardi has Alabama one-seed.   

      Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi has moved Alabama up to a number one seed after Houston and Villanova went down in defeat. What a compliment for Alabama basketball fans. I think Nick Saban would call it rat-poison, and it could be just that. I think I'll enjoy it until Saturday at 11:00 CST time. That is when Alabama and Missouri tip it off in Columbia, Mo. 

       Basketball is a tournament sport. That's what makes it so dynamic. It's a kind of Cinderella meets Godzilla on the hardwood. The NCAA tournament is where dreams are made or broken.  We should be thankful that the NCAA gave college basketball fans a system that gives us insight into how the Selection Committee might seed teams. Let's soak that up, but keep an eye on the ball. The only thing that matters to any team is to keep winning. If your team keeps winning, good things will happen. That's what Alabama did against LSU. That's what Missouri did as well. These two teams have excelled this season because they have worked hard and keep on winning.

        Alabama players deserve some respect for what they have accomplished this season. Nate Oates will be happy for his team and proud of reaching such a plateau in year two of his tenure. He's a smart man, and I bet he'll tell you that it doesn't matter one bit right now. His quote?  "To dwell on it probably distracting." 

Does Bama have some matchup problems with Missouri?

    Alabama could be a slight underdog this weekend in Columbia. For the record, Alabama is 11-0 in the SEC. Missouri is the second-place team in the conference at 5-3. The Tigers are ranked 17th in the Coaches poll, while Bama comes in at 7th. That's a three-game lead.  Should 'Bama beat Mizzou, that would be a four-game lead. The Tigers have played three fewer games than the Tide. I'm not sure the SEC has plans to have make-up games at this time. A win over Missouri might make that a moot point. 

 

Gary needs to have another big game...

       Kenpom has Bama a 2 point favorite today. That sounds about right.  The Tigers are 7-1 at home, but the Tide is 4-1 on the road. All indications are for a hard-fought game. This is a game 'Bama might lose.  The Tigers are coming off a win over Kentucky. This was a game that Kentucky might have won. Senior leadership won the game down the stretch for the Tigers. The Tigers will start with three or four seniors. Jerimiah Tillman, 6-11 senior, is averaging 12.0 ppg and 8 rebounds. He weighs in at 260 lbs. He is the chairman of boards. He can cause Alabama trouble. Xavier Pinson, 6-3 junior, is the point guard and leading scorer for the Tiger. He checks in at 15.1 ppg and 3 assists and makes 41% of his threes. He is the straw that stirs the drink for Mizzou. Dru Smith, 6-3, senior, is averaging 14 ppg and 3 assists.  The Tigers have some size inside and some great guard play. These upperclassmen are rock steady. Missouri won't make a lot of unforced errors. Missouri's rotation is usually seven players. 

 

Is Jones well?

        For the Tide, Herb Jones seems to be recovering. He sat to most of the second half of the LSU game due to foul trouble, and perhaps the extra rest will help him. Oats rested him yesterday. Alex Reese needs a big game. Reese needs to hit the boards, use his outside shooting to draw Tillman out of the lane. We can expect Juwan Gary to get some significant minutes.  

     Offensively, Alabama is going to need some outside shooting in this game. Missouri rebounds well, and Petty and Primo need to hit a few from downtown. Quinerly must use his ball-handling skills to get into the lane. He'll have a chance to make some three-pointers.  Herb Jones is made for this type of game. If Jones can establish himself on offense 'Bama can win. Jones is always a force on defense. Alabama must pick up the pace in this game. I think Missouri will try to do the same. They have speed and quickness at the guards and may try to play Alabama straight up. That won't work. They will then move on to plan B. They will try to do what everyone has done to the Tide lately. 

WHAT 'BAMA NEEDS TO WIN:

1. Petty, Primo, and company need some threes. 40% would be nice.

2. Quinerly or Jones needs to dribble and drive to the basket and score.

3. Bama's defense needs to keep it up.

4. Alabama needs to win the boards and get a lot of second-chances.

5. Reese, Gary, and Rojas need big games.

6. Primo needs to get involved. 

7. Ellis will get more time, and he needs to score and play heavy D.

8. Herb needs to be able to penetrate, rebound, and play his usual game.

9. Keep the turnovers down to around 10, and cause 15.

10.Make 75+% of the free throws. 

      An interesting stat from Teamrankings.com - Alabama has a stronger chance of winning on the road as opposed to being at home. (any road game)

     I feel uneasy about the game, but I'm picking Bama to win by 2. 

MY FRIEND HARVEY SAID - "We are so far ahead in the SEC, I don't know who to pull for except Bama.  Oh yeah, and whoever plays Auburn."