Mississippi State ready to pound the Tide...

      Read it yourself in their posts. The Bulldogs are ready for some old fashioned revenge. They just may get it as well. The Tide is a six point underdog. Alabama needs to play the best game they have played this season to win. No joking. State is the third best team the Tide has played this season IMO. Better than Auburn. I believe so. The formula to win road games is to play as well as you, and hope for some help. That help involves turnovers and poor shooting. The Bulldogs didn't shoot well in Tuscaloosa and I don't expect a repeat in Starkville. The Hump gives the Bulldogs a big homecourt advantage. What does Alabama need to win? 

      First, round up the usual suspects. Bama needs to get Don'ta Hall more involved on offense. His shot total is going down. Way down. Hall needs to disrupt inside and control the defensive boards, and he needs some help to boot.  That would be Dazon Ingram who is without a doubt the best rebound guard in the SEC. Tevin Mack can help. so can Petty. The Tide needs an outstanding offensive game from either Petty or Mack. It's a mix and match type deal. The Tide needs to have fewer turnovers. Less than 10 is ideal but... We really have only two ball handlers. Lewis, Jr. and Jr. can  handle the ball. 

      Don't talk about it but the Tide has been better at the free throw line. They need to keep it up. Whoever thought that Hall was going to be a decent free throw shooters. My superstitions make this difficult to type. At the end of the game it will shooting percentages, free throws, and defensive rebounds that win the game. The usual suspects never go away. If the outside game is hot we can win. The Tide has good outside shooters. Lewis, Mack, Petty, and Ingram are good and getting better. Off the bench, Riley "Pops" Norris killed Vandy in the last game. He is also the coach on the floor when he plays. The younger players look up to him. What a warrior. I have watching him play since the tenth grade. He is a winner. 

       State has gotten off to poor starts lately. Bama needs that to happen again. They will be pumped, and they are not playing to get in the Tournament. They are play for a higher seed. Alabama may well nail down a berth with two road wins. No, they will down a berth with wins over MSU and USC. Two losses and then two killer home games could spell doom and gloom for a berth. Four wins and Bama is suddenly a five seed. 

My heart says Bama. My head says State because they are at home. 

State by 8. I hopefully be eating crow later tonight. 
 

     

WHEN DOES THE NCAA TOURNAMENT BEGIN?

   So I'm down at Five Guys having the low-calorie double cheeseburger with large fries and a diet coke at lunch today. I'm talking to a guy in a 'Bama tee shirt.  We are laughing. A man walks up and says, "are you, Ellis"? This is never a good sign in South Alabama. I nod in the affirmative. He goes on to say he heard me talking and remembered when I did radio with Herb and Ben. "I recognized your voice", he says. We strike up a conversation and he asks me, "when does the NCAA Tournament begin"? Honestly, I couldn't remember the date. Here's what I said. "It starts with the first game of the year." He chuckled, but it is the truth. Every game counts in this new algorithmic world of college basketball. 

   Alabama is 15-8. They've been playing some good ball recently.  But you can't get rid of bad losses.  Northeaster, TAMU, and Georgia State are going to be the albatross around the neck of the Crimson Tide. They replay those games and Bama wins by double digits in each one. Not only do the losses hurt, but every time each of those three teams losses hurts as well. You just can't escape the math. I see that Alabama has passed AU in the RPI rankings. In the all-important NET, the Tide won and their score remained the same. Auburn lost to LSU and they remained the same. I'm just saying that seems odd. Using that logic it would have been better for Alabama to lose to Duke than beat Vanderbilt. I don't like that type of thinking. It rewards a loss and minimizes a win. But, the math says that is okay. 

    Pre-season games are just as important as league games. If Alabama wins those three games and they are 18-5. Their NET is probably around 15 or so. Alabama broke it and they have to pay for it. Laugh if you wish, but I've always been a proponent of a National Tournament that includes everyone. It might make the season a little longer, but man that would be a way to say every team got to play for the national championship. I guess some would say that this already happens, and in a sense it does. One year, the NCAA should give this a chance. 

   Now, the Tide gets ready to play to make the field. Surely, they are one of the top 25 teams in the nation. Here's how I think this plays out for 'Bama. I am being hopeful in my approach to making predictions.

1. MSU - Bama will likely lose. This is a key game for both teams. 
2. Florida - Bama will probably win, but with will be a war.
3. TAMU - Bama can win this game, but the road is so hard isn't it? We will find out a    about Bama in this one.    
4. USC - Another game Bama can win, but South Carolina is a tough team. They are rough and Silva is a gem.
5.  LSU - I think the Tide will win, but simply because they have to win and are at        home.
6. Auburn - Auburn gives the Tide so many match-up problems it hurts. I'd take Bama  at home in a barn burner. No pun intended.
7. Arkansas - I'd take Arkie in this one.
8. Vandy - Bama 
8. SEC Tournament - I'll take Bama due to seeding.

    There we go. Of course, Alabama could easily lose to South Carolina and TAMU on the road. It's the road. The road is tough. Bama could lose to LSU and Auburn at home. Going into the SEC the Tide may upside down on the bubble. To split the baby, I'd say the Tide could end the season with 19 wins and 12 losses. Let's be honest. Alabama should beat Vandy at home.  LSU, Auburn, and Florida at home will be hard to do. Can they do win all three? Yes, but will they? That sounds like a lot. At least, they are at home. If Bama could beat TAMU and USC on the road I'd feel a lot better about the home games. What I'd hate to see is a season-ending collapse, and that is possible. But hopefully, it will be the year of a Jubilee. I'd like to think the Tide doesn't have to win a couple of games in Nashville. Losing two more home games might be the end for Alabama.  This bubble stuff is hard, isn't it? Four wins will be enough. The SECT is for seed. 19-12 should be enough. Win all the home games and 2 on the road, and 'Bama is a 6 seed, maybe better. 

Johnson gets first win at Vanderbilt…

     It was a good night. Any time an Alabama team beats Vanderbilt in Nashville makes it a good night. Avery Johnson got a big-time win. Riley Norris provided leadership and showed younger players how to man up and win. The Tides record is now 15-8 overall and 6-4 in the SEC. That’s good for 5^th place with Ole Miss. Alabama has beaten Ole Miss once this season but won’t get replay unless they meet in the SECT.

     The Tide had to shut down a Vandy comeback after building a 16-point lead. The Commodores cut into the lead, but behind the strong rebounding of Riley and deadly downtown shooting the Tide settled down to an impressive road win. Any win on the road in the highly competitive SEC is impressive. Riley finished the night with 15 points with three three-point baskets when the Tide needed them most.  He also had 12 big rebounds, including three which help curb a Vandy run late the game. He also made 6-7 free throws. The Tide nailed 17-21 free throws. Alabama players seemed better focused on the free throws. 80% is a big number for any team. 

      Kira Lewis, Jr. led all scorers with 18 points, 4 assists, and only two turnovers. He was relaxed and the Vandy crowd didn’t intimidate him. Dazon Ingram has another outstanding game. He made 3 three-point baskets. If Alabama can continue that kind of outside shooting they are going to win some big games down the line. Call him Don’ta “downtown” Hall. Hall made his first three-point basket of his career. He stepped back behind the line and nailed it from the top of the key. Hall also made both his free throws to continue better free throw shooting recently. All in all, it was a big win for Alabama on a court where they have historically struggled. Yes, the refs helped them along late in the game, but Alabama responded with a strong run themselves. For a minute it appeared that Alabama might throw another game away. It didn’t happen. Lewis and Riley showed a new ‘Bama attitude. The Refuse to Lose mentality was key. (Compliments of Xerxes). And once again, Giddens helped inside.

    Tomorrow we will talk about the Tide’s remaining games. 

vanderbilt - the place where 'bama teams go to die...

      I want to set the record straight about why I hate Vanderbilt fans. They are mostly a bunch of elite white little snobs living off daddy's money. I remember going up to Vanderbilt in the salad days of the 1970s. Vanderbilt is a place where diversity means the very rich and ordinary rich with a few students from overseas. That night, Alabama was whipping the pants off the Commodores. Upsetting Vandy on their home floor was a big deal. The students started this racist chant - "that's all right, that's ok, you will all work for us someday." Alabama started five African-American kids who bled crimson just like you and me. A couple of faculty members apologized to the Alabama fans. I told them they didn't have to apologize for the actions of their KKK students. 

      My parents, now deceased, taught me that racism was immoral. It took root in my heart. Those unkind words were indicative of a lot of Southerners. Sadly, it appears the still are, and not just in the Deep South. Every year when the schedule is released my first glance is when do we play Vandy. To be fair, a lot has changed at Vanderbilt. But those students are now leaders in many fields. They still influence the lives of others. This weekend I hope we can put on the same show we did that cold night years ago. I will watch the game with an intensity like any other game.

    Alabama needs to win this game. The Tide played 30 minutes of good solid basketball against Georgia. Kira Lewis, Jr. and Tevin Mack played with a poise and polish. Mack showed some of the skills that made him so valuable to Texas prior to his transfer from Texas. Daniel Giddens played is his best game. He can help the Tide if he continues playing the way he did against Georgia. Kudos to John Petty. He played some hard-nosed defense when his shots didn't fall. He played well the last time he was in Tennessee. A win would move the Tide to 15-8 overall and 6-4 in the SEC

    Here are a few numbers to keep in mind. 4 will likely get the Tide into the Dance. But 19 wins don't guarantee anything other causing a dispute among fans. The Tide is in good shape with its NET at 44. That is still marginal but will improve if Bama beats MSU, LSU, and Auburn. I like our chances with Auburn and LSU at home. Alabama can beat South Carolina in Columbia. Same for Vandy and Florida at home. I see five wins. Bama can beat any team in the SEC at home or on a neutral floor. The Tide has 14th toughest schedule in the nation and an RPI of 36. All the numbers can get the Tide into the SEC. If the Tide finished in the top five in the SEC they are in. It is marginal with a 9-9 conference record. The Tide might need to win 2 in the SECT.  If Bama is in they are now playing for a better seed. Two publications have Bama as a 10. Stellar wins over MSU, Kentucky, and Ole Miss look good. How good depends on what each of those teams do as well. 

THE OFFICIATING IS ALWAYS A KILLER IN NASHVILLE

I like Bama by 3.

Make it or break it time for the Tide...

     Here's the deal with Alabama and Avery Johnson. You can forget the record, the inconsistency, and the highlights of the season so far. The only thing that matters is what's left on the schedule. That starts with Georgia tonight. If Alabama wins, the dream of another NCAA Tournament lives on. If the Crimson and White lose, well, you might just see the end of their Tournament hopes. When you have home losses to Georgia State, TAMU, and Georgia you would have to do something extraordinary to make up some sorely lost ground.

          There is absolutely nothing ordinary about this year's team. When they are good they are very good, and when they are bad they are horrible. The team struggles to finish games they were winning with five minutes left in the game. In all candor, the Tide just falls apart when the pressure gets hot. I'm not really sure why that happens. You would think that a 17-year-old point guard would be the weak link. He isn't. Lewis isn't perfect by any means but he's not Dazon Ingram. I hate to point out an individual player but Dazon seems to be a walking turnover at times. Hey, I love the guy. He is having a bad season handling the ball. He is a warrior in the paint, and he can shoot the three. In fact, he needs to shoot a lot more. What he doesn't need to do is play point guard. 

          Alabama suffers from a lack of quickness in their guard play. Lewis is quick, but not quicker than death, Dazon is powerful but not quick, and Junior not really quick, but he is better than 'Bama fans want to admit at times. The lack of quickness at the guard causes all sorts of problems on offense, and in a man defense. 

         John Petty and Tevin Mack must score more. When either gets hot from the field the Tide either wins or scares somebody to death. If they don't score, the Tide is going to have a tough time scoring. Both are playing better. Riley Norris is a tremendous help for Alabama. He is the best sixth man in the SEC in my opinion. He brings much needed senior leadership. He will be a key player down the stretch. 

         Clearly, Johnson needs to help this team to establish an identity. I've often thought that when you play ten in a rotation it might be difficult to find that identity. I'd go old school and would stick to eight players. Perhaps those eight could become more cohesive on offense. Defense is about preparation and toughness. Defense is a mental attitude. Unlike offense, a team can be consistent on defense every game. A player who can deny a basket three or four times a game is a difference maker. Herb Jones needs to be that man again. Limit his touches and Jones can be the player he was at the end of last season.  This Alabama team plays a little soft at times. They beat State with only one three-point basket.

       Georgia has talent and a good inside game. Hall needs to play hard. When he is involved the team plays betters. A double-double will help. Alabama better make their free throws. 70% should be the minimum goal.    My pick:  Alabama by 7. 

From the Midcourt:  Nothing wrong with Tide fans criticizing the program. Nothing wrong with seeing the world through Crimson colored glasses. Both sides make good points. One thing that seems to be true from both schools of thought - no one wants mediocrity. 

Tide is embarrassed...

       

      I don’t think any halfway honest person thought for a single moment that Alabama could have beaten Auburn on the Plains. Not me, I picked Auburn to win by over ten. Auburn is a good basketball team. They beat the Tide in every phase of the game. What I didn’t expect was to see that Auburn had better players at every position on the floor.  That includes the coaching.

       I got some heat from a poster who said Alabama basketball fans didn’t need a fan like me. I am the exact type of fan ‘Bama needs. I love them, but I am not going to keep my mouth shut when it is clear we have some problems. In the fourth season of Avery Johnson, we have some real problems. Think of this for a moment. Auburn has a better basketball program than Alabama. Auburn. For heaven’s sake, the Tigers have a better basketball program that the University of Alabama and the current status shows no realistic chance of changing anytime soon.  This nonsense has been going on at Alabama since midway through Mark Gottfried’s tenure.

      Now I know that one game doesn’t a season make. But this loss is the poster child of what is wrong with our hoops.  We have only one decent ball handler, and he is 17 years old. We have one decent rebounder in Hall, but kudos of Ingram for pitching in. Jones and Ingram have taken a big step back from last season. Jones to the NBA. In what world will that happen?   This team makes far too many turnovers. They have no leadership and we can’t expect Lewis to be that man. Petty played hard and helped the Tide yesterday. 21 turnovers?  That is a direct result of poor coaching. Johnson failed to call timeouts when they were needed again, but at least Jones didn’t catch a fourth foul this time.

      Bama played better in the second half but the Tigers were on cruise control. The officiating was iffy but yesterday I wrote that it would be. We have no backup big man, and now Hall Graduates. Fleming is no Hall. Johnson needs to scour Europe to find a big man.  Yesterday we were lost. We looked like we had never played before. This is a reflection on the coaching and recruiting.  How does a college team not have a legitimate back-up point guard? I congratulate Junior his effort. Ingram cannot handle the ball under pressure. We are wasting Mack’s ability. We had no plays for Hall yesterday. It was a total embarrassment to our program and all the great players who came before. We now have some very winnable games ahead of us. Only one team as a winning SEC record. We are still 4-4. Do Alabama fans settle to be second best in our State   Demand better.  Make your voiced heard. We might still make the NCAA by some good end of season play, but do we want to continue to be a bottom feeder. I don’t and you can hate me for saying so. 

'Bama hits the road for the Tigers...

    Two teams searching for some consistency play when Auburn hosts Alabama this Saturday. The Tigers have lost three of their last four games before exploding against Missouri. The score of that game was 92-58.  Auburn made 16-41 behind the three-point line. Whatever demons the Tigers might have had in the three previous games seemed to be purged with that win. Avery Johnson hasn't been able to win a game in the Auburn arena in his short 'Bama career. The Tide is coming off a nail biter against Mississippi State. The Tide had an impressive first half and then had to fight to win. I think that might be par for the course regarding 'Bama. 

    Coach Johnson reported that he pumped in loud audio of the crowd noise that his Tiders will hear in Auburn. A unique idea. Let's hope it helps. Alabama is 13-7 and would be a ten-seed if the NCAAT was selected today. Auburn would be an eight-seed according to the numbers gurus. The Tigers are 14-6. Bama's NET is 43. Auburn's NET is currently 24. Both teams are fighting for some national recognition and some impetus for the remainder of the SEC season.

      How does Alabama beat Auburn? It is going to take the best game that they can play, both offensively and defensively.  Alabama needs to start well. I also think Auburn needs to have a bad day at the office. The Tigers need to help Alabama by missing a lot more from behind the arc than they make. A lot more. 

      Auburn is going to foul, and foul often. It is part of their game plan. Pearl believes that the officials cannot call every foul.  But, the Tide will likely spend some additional time on the free throw line. That's good but usually ends up bad for the Tide.  The Tide's free throw shooting woes will only embolden the Tigers to foul even more. That would be a solid game strategy for the Tigers. A good day from the line will go a long way in keeping the game close down the stretch. 

     The Tigers are a surprisingly strong rebounding team. They aren't big but are very athletic. They are very quick jumpers. It is important that the Tide dominate the boards. That is standard coach talk, but if Alabama can't dominate the boards they will lose. I'd like to see a ten board advantage with very few offensive boards in the mix. Wiley is not expected to return to the lineup for the Alabama game. We'll see. Hall needs to have a big day. A double-double, stay out of foul trouble and disrupt Tiger offense on the inside. Someone else needs to help out in the paint. Don't be surprised if 'Bama doesn't try too bigs inside. Smith and Reese could get some significant minutes. 

      Who guards Bryce Brown and Jared Harper. Frankly, I don't see anyone on the Tide roster who can shut Brown down. Slow him down would be nice. I wonder if Johnson would let Herb Jones give it a shot? Otherwise, I'd expect to see Dazon Ingram and Kira Lewis, Jr. split the chores. Harper can sting you as well. My bet is that Kira Lewis gets the nod. Alabama needs to slow this game down. If you can slow down the Tigers on offense and spend running your half-court offense it will help Alabama. If Alabama can execute the same manner as they did against Mississippi State they have a chance. As stated before, it will take the best game the Tide has played this season. It will take the game that beat Kentucky. Bama is going to get a lot of three point looks. Make them. 

     I'd be lying if I told you 'Bama will win this game. I don't think they will but they can. If Bama thinks they can win, they just might do it. Here's what I have learned in the past few years. The drive to Auburn is long. But it is always much longer going home. Roll Tide and whip the Aubies.