WHEN DOES THE NCAA TOURNAMENT BEGIN?
So I'm down at Five Guys having the low-calorie double cheeseburger with large fries and a diet coke at lunch today. I'm talking to a guy in a 'Bama tee shirt. We are laughing. A man walks up and says, "are you, Ellis"? This is never a good sign in South Alabama. I nod in the affirmative. He goes on to say he heard me talking and remembered when I did radio with Herb and Ben. "I recognized your voice", he says. We strike up a conversation and he asks me, "when does the NCAA Tournament begin"? Honestly, I couldn't remember the date. Here's what I said. "It starts with the first game of the year." He chuckled, but it is the truth. Every game counts in this new algorithmic world of college basketball.
Alabama is 15-8. They've been playing some good ball recently. But you can't get rid of bad losses. Northeaster, TAMU, and Georgia State are going to be the albatross around the neck of the Crimson Tide. They replay those games and Bama wins by double digits in each one. Not only do the losses hurt, but every time each of those three teams losses hurts as well. You just can't escape the math. I see that Alabama has passed AU in the RPI rankings. In the all-important NET, the Tide won and their score remained the same. Auburn lost to LSU and they remained the same. I'm just saying that seems odd. Using that logic it would have been better for Alabama to lose to Duke than beat Vanderbilt. I don't like that type of thinking. It rewards a loss and minimizes a win. But, the math says that is okay.
Pre-season games are just as important as league games. If Alabama wins those three games and they are 18-5. Their NET is probably around 15 or so. Alabama broke it and they have to pay for it. Laugh if you wish, but I've always been a proponent of a National Tournament that includes everyone. It might make the season a little longer, but man that would be a way to say every team got to play for the national championship. I guess some would say that this already happens, and in a sense it does. One year, the NCAA should give this a chance.
Now, the Tide gets ready to play to make the field. Surely, they are one of the top 25 teams in the nation. Here's how I think this plays out for 'Bama. I am being hopeful in my approach to making predictions.
1. MSU - Bama will likely lose. This is a key game for both teams.
2. Florida - Bama will probably win, but with will be a war.
3. TAMU - Bama can win this game, but the road is so hard isn't it? We will find out a about Bama in this one.
4. USC - Another game Bama can win, but South Carolina is a tough team. They are rough and Silva is a gem.
5. LSU - I think the Tide will win, but simply because they have to win and are at home.
6. Auburn - Auburn gives the Tide so many match-up problems it hurts. I'd take Bama at home in a barn burner. No pun intended.
7. Arkansas - I'd take Arkie in this one.
8. Vandy - Bama
8. SEC Tournament - I'll take Bama due to seeding.
There we go. Of course, Alabama could easily lose to South Carolina and TAMU on the road. It's the road. The road is tough. Bama could lose to LSU and Auburn at home. Going into the SEC the Tide may upside down on the bubble. To split the baby, I'd say the Tide could end the season with 19 wins and 12 losses. Let's be honest. Alabama should beat Vandy at home. LSU, Auburn, and Florida at home will be hard to do. Can they do win all three? Yes, but will they? That sounds like a lot. At least, they are at home. If Bama could beat TAMU and USC on the road I'd feel a lot better about the home games. What I'd hate to see is a season-ending collapse, and that is possible. But hopefully, it will be the year of a Jubilee. I'd like to think the Tide doesn't have to win a couple of games in Nashville. Losing two more home games might be the end for Alabama. This bubble stuff is hard, isn't it? Four wins will be enough. The SECT is for seed. 19-12 should be enough. Win all the home games and 2 on the road, and 'Bama is a 6 seed, maybe better.
So I'm down at Five Guys having the low-calorie double cheeseburger with large fries and a diet coke at lunch today. I'm talking to a guy in a 'Bama tee shirt. We are laughing. A man walks up and says, "are you, Ellis"? This is never a good sign in South Alabama. I nod in the affirmative. He goes on to say he heard me talking and remembered when I did radio with Herb and Ben. "I recognized your voice", he says. We strike up a conversation and he asks me, "when does the NCAA Tournament begin"? Honestly, I couldn't remember the date. Here's what I said. "It starts with the first game of the year." He chuckled, but it is the truth. Every game counts in this new algorithmic world of college basketball.
Alabama is 15-8. They've been playing some good ball recently. But you can't get rid of bad losses. Northeaster, TAMU, and Georgia State are going to be the albatross around the neck of the Crimson Tide. They replay those games and Bama wins by double digits in each one. Not only do the losses hurt, but every time each of those three teams losses hurts as well. You just can't escape the math. I see that Alabama has passed AU in the RPI rankings. In the all-important NET, the Tide won and their score remained the same. Auburn lost to LSU and they remained the same. I'm just saying that seems odd. Using that logic it would have been better for Alabama to lose to Duke than beat Vanderbilt. I don't like that type of thinking. It rewards a loss and minimizes a win. But, the math says that is okay.
Pre-season games are just as important as league games. If Alabama wins those three games and they are 18-5. Their NET is probably around 15 or so. Alabama broke it and they have to pay for it. Laugh if you wish, but I've always been a proponent of a National Tournament that includes everyone. It might make the season a little longer, but man that would be a way to say every team got to play for the national championship. I guess some would say that this already happens, and in a sense it does. One year, the NCAA should give this a chance.
Now, the Tide gets ready to play to make the field. Surely, they are one of the top 25 teams in the nation. Here's how I think this plays out for 'Bama. I am being hopeful in my approach to making predictions.
1. MSU - Bama will likely lose. This is a key game for both teams.
2. Florida - Bama will probably win, but with will be a war.
3. TAMU - Bama can win this game, but the road is so hard isn't it? We will find out a about Bama in this one.
4. USC - Another game Bama can win, but South Carolina is a tough team. They are rough and Silva is a gem.
5. LSU - I think the Tide will win, but simply because they have to win and are at home.
6. Auburn - Auburn gives the Tide so many match-up problems it hurts. I'd take Bama at home in a barn burner. No pun intended.
7. Arkansas - I'd take Arkie in this one.
8. Vandy - Bama
8. SEC Tournament - I'll take Bama due to seeding.
There we go. Of course, Alabama could easily lose to South Carolina and TAMU on the road. It's the road. The road is tough. Bama could lose to LSU and Auburn at home. Going into the SEC the Tide may upside down on the bubble. To split the baby, I'd say the Tide could end the season with 19 wins and 12 losses. Let's be honest. Alabama should beat Vandy at home. LSU, Auburn, and Florida at home will be hard to do. Can they do win all three? Yes, but will they? That sounds like a lot. At least, they are at home. If Bama could beat TAMU and USC on the road I'd feel a lot better about the home games. What I'd hate to see is a season-ending collapse, and that is possible. But hopefully, it will be the year of a Jubilee. I'd like to think the Tide doesn't have to win a couple of games in Nashville. Losing two more home games might be the end for Alabama. This bubble stuff is hard, isn't it? Four wins will be enough. The SECT is for seed. 19-12 should be enough. Win all the home games and 2 on the road, and 'Bama is a 6 seed, maybe better.
No comments:
Post a Comment