Do you wonder if Alabama can find a great head coach? Will the history of mediocrity bother some coaches, or will attract coaches? Will the fact that Alabama is first and foremost a football school make coaches wary of coming to Tuscaloosa? Finally, how much money will Alabama be willing to pay? What would make any highly successful coach want to coach at Alabama?
1. CAN ALABAMA CONVINCE BIG TIME COACH TO COME TO TUSCALOOSA? I’m not sure that a really successful college coach in D-1 power conference wants to coach at Alabama. The State of Alabama is not a rich recruiting area. It was at one time, but the talent isn’t what it used to be. Just because fans love the Tide, a lot of expectations are broadly brushed by the football success. We are not entitled to a great coach because Nick Saban is a great coach. Basketball coaches have pretty big egos.
2. ALABAMA’S LAST DECADE OR SO ISN’T CONDUCIVE TO RECRUITS OR COACHES - Alabama hasn’t had much success in the last decade. A culture of mediocrity has been around for a long time. That hurt’s recruiting. A 17 or 18-year-old kid has looked at Alabama hasn’t seen much to entice them to play in Tuscaloosa during their lifetimes. That’s the downside to being unsuccessful. There is an upside. A great recruiter might be able to convince players to a sign and play now philosophy.
3. Can being a football power help Alabama’s basketball program? The evidence would suggest the answer to that question is no. Some exceptions can be found. But perhaps my question is the wrong thing to ask. Can an SEC basketball team benefit from the football madness of the Deep South? Florida was national champions in both sports, but the Gators had exceptional coaches in both sports. Ask Kentucky football fans if having a great basketball program helps their football. While not 100% true it seems that most SEC teams cannot be great in both sports. Granted, the SEC hasn’t always tried to have great basketball coaches. If you look at the BIG Ten you will see success in both sports but the reason why is that part of our nation has a huge African-American population center nearby.
4. Will money help? It never hurts, but it doesn’t guarantee success. Alabama paid Avery Johnson 3 million to coach at the Capstone. How much did it help the Tide? If you want to hire a top-level coach you better be willing to shell out big bucks for top assistants.
Biggest Danger for the Tide: If you look at historical success there are two things that are clear-cut. First, teams become successful are likely to stay successful. Alabama no longer falls into this category. Second, a team that stays unsuccessful for an extended period might never be successful again. (exceptions occur) Bama is close to being in this category. In fact, if this hire isn’t productive the Tide is looking at a further drop in success in my opinion. You can argue that Anthony Grant and Avery Johnson, while not as successful as hoped, at least didn’t let the Tide hit rock bottom. The second half of the past season could be hitting the iceberg if the new coach can’t get things on track quickly. Any potential coach will look at the current situation and give that scenario some serious thought. UCLA may have hit the second point now. While older fans look at the Bruins as the gold standard, I know a lot of younger fans who don’t know about the history of UCLA. (See point 2 above)
Why this hire will be successful – after talking to some of my old friends in Tuscaloosa I am convinced the Tide will make the financial commitment necessary to succeed. In a league of coaching ascendency, the Tide cannot risk falling further behind. That doesn’t mean that Alabama will sign the best available coach. There are major risks for any candidate to come to Alabama. If the Tide signs an up and comer he will be vetted like no coach in Alabama basketball history. If the new hire leaving everyone scratching their heads we are in trouble. This is going to be a tough gig. And wait for it…. A new place to play ASAP. A palace isn’t needed but an oversize Quonset Hut won’t cut it. Where a kid plays may not be really necessary, but other coaches can convince a kid and his parents it counts.
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