Will Tide have a last hoorah against Auburn?

         Auburn got a big win over Mississippi State 80-75, It gave the Tigers their 20th win of the season against 9 losses. More than that it was an SEC win. The Tigers haven't been tearing up the league. Now, the Aubies have their sites on Alabama. The Tide is a team which has severe matchup problems and they seem to have lost the ability to beat anyone that matters. They have one more chance when Auburn comes calling. 

Tide still in Lundardi and Palms' brackets...

         Somehow, Alabama is still hanging around the edge of the NCAAT cliff. Perhaps, they have only one had on the ledge.  If Alabama can't upset the Tigers you can forget the NCAAT Tournament unless something unexpected happens in the SECT. Arkansas is also a must win. Sooner for later the Crimson Tide must beat someone to be relevant. Beating Auburn would do the trick. I have no idea why Alabama is still in those brackets. But they are, and let's hope the Tide can prove them correct. Beating Auburn and Arkansas would boost the Tide to an 8,9, or 10 seed. That is possible, but not probable. But if Bama could beat those two teams it would be significant.

        

Matchup problems abound with AU...

        I cannot think of a team we need to beat that causes us more matchup problems than Auburn.   The Tiger guards are fast, quick, and good shooters. It is being kind to say that Alabama has any guard that can match the Tigers backcourt. Kira Lewis is quick and fast, but he is just not experienced enough right now. Dazon isn't quick. He is strong and fast and can cause either Harper or Brown some problems when he is on offense. So can Lewis. One key for Bama is to make the Auburn guards work hard on defense. I think Alabama's guards can do that. Expect Junior to get some significant minutes trying to make Harper follow him when he moves around the perimeter. 

         Alabama can likely slow down Auburn inside. Is it in Alabama's best interest to do so? Why would anyone even suggest that? Second Key to beat Auburn is to cut off the three-point shooting even if means giving up some inside points. How crazy is that? Ask Ole Miss Head Coach Kermit Davis.  Davis essentially gave up the inside game to the Tigers in order to put more pressure on the Tigers deadly outside shooting. Wiley isn't likely to play this Tuesday. That might be more of a blessing for Auburn than Alabama. Wiley slows down the Tiger's run game. The best of all worlds would be a poor shooting night for the Tigers. 

        Alabama needs to shoot well. That's pretty easy to say, right? But the Tide needs a near 50% from the floor, and from the arc as well. Alabama can do that by letting the good shooters have the ball. Sorry, Daniel, no threes for you. Let Petty, Riley, Mack, Ingram and Lewis shoot from downtown. Ironically, all five of those players can make the long ball. Playing at home can help. Key three for Bama is a big night for three Alabama downtown shooters. The Tide needs for a couple of their three-point shooters have big nights. The Tide can also penetrate and give it to Hall or dish it back outside.

      Alabama had more than 20 turnovers the last time they played the Tigers. In Tuscaloosa, the Crimson needs to slow the pace down. Key four is to keep the turnovers to around 10. How many games could the Tide have won by making free throws? If that percentage was 75 percent the games won would have been 22 right now. It might even be higher because I could not factor in the missed shots on one and ones. Key five is making free throws. If Alabama doesn't do that they lose. Should 'Bama gets a halfway decent game from the officials they might shoot 20 free throws. Key five is keeping the high leaping Tiders off the offensive boards. 

     Auburn is a 2.5 point favorite. I was thinking four or five. How long has it been since Alabama beat a really good team? How about Jan. 29 against Mississippi State. Another way of saying this is zero for February. If Alabama fails to win chances become single digits numbers per the experts.